Series Win Probability
Overall chance of winning the series
Win Probability Changes
Team |
Initial |
Current |
Change |
LAK
|
55.8% |
94.5% |
+38.8%
|
EDM
|
44.2% |
5.5% |
-38.8%
|
Comparison between initial predictions (April 17, 2025) and current predictions (April 25, 2025)
Key Outcomes
Sweep (4-0)
Either team wins in 4 games
54.3%
Game 7 Decider
Series goes the distance
10.6%
LAK has a 94.5% chance of winning this series compared to EDM's 5.5% chance.
Series Length Distribution
Probability of the series ending in specific number of games
Series Length Changes
Games |
Initial |
Current |
Change |
4 Games |
12.7%
|
54.3%
|
+41.6%
|
5 Games |
24.3%
|
22.4%
|
-1.9%
|
6 Games |
31.5%
|
12.7%
|
-18.9%
|
7 Games |
31.4%
|
10.6%
|
-20.9%
|
Comparison between initial predictions (April 17, 2025) and current predictions (April 25, 2025)
Based on the distribution, a 7-game series is the most probable outcome.
Exact Series Scores
Probability of specific win-loss outcomes
Outcome |
Winner |
Score |
Initial |
Current |
Change |
LAK in 43
|
LAK
|
4-3 |
16.0%
|
15.4%
|
-0.1%
|
EDM in 40
|
EDM
|
4-0 |
5.3%
|
5.4%
|
+2.3%
|
LAK in 42
|
LAK
|
4-2 |
12.9%
|
17.3%
|
+0.6%
|
EDM in 41
|
EDM
|
4-1 |
11.1%
|
11.1%
|
+2.8%
|
Comparison between initial (April 17, 2025) and current (April 25, 2025) predictions
The most common outcome is likely to be a 4-3 series win.
Game by Game Probabilities
Win probability for each potential game in the series
Win Probability Changes
Game |
Team |
Initial |
Current |
Change |
Game 1 |
LAK
|
50.2% |
50.2%
|
0.0%
|
EDM
|
33.8% |
33.8%
|
0.0%
|
Game 2 |
LAK
|
49.8% |
49.8%
|
0.0%
|
EDM
|
34.2% |
34.2%
|
0.0%
|
Game 3 |
EDM
|
44.3% |
44.3%
|
0.0%
|
LAK
|
39.7% |
39.7%
|
0.0%
|
Game 4 |
EDM
|
44.0% |
45.7%
|
+1.7%
|
LAK
|
39.9% |
38.1%
|
-1.8%
|
Comparison between initial predictions (April 17, 2025) and current predictions (April 25, 2025)
LAK has the highest win probability in Game 1 at home (50.2%%).
Game Over/Under Probabilities
Probability of total goals exceeding thresholds for each game
Game |
Teams |
Over 5.5 Goals |
Over 6.5 Goals |
|
|
Prob |
Change |
Prob |
Change |
Game 1 |
LAK vs EDM
|
51.1%
|
0.0%
|
36.2%
|
0.0%
|
Game 2 |
LAK vs EDM
|
51.0%
|
0.0%
|
35.4%
|
0.0%
|
Game 3 |
EDM vs LAK
|
52.0%
|
0.0%
|
36.1%
|
0.0%
|
Game 4 |
EDM vs LAK
|
53.4%
|
+1.9%
|
37.4%
|
+1.5%
|
Game 5* |
LAK vs EDM
|
52.6%
|
+0.9%
|
37.4%
|
+1.1%
|
Game 6* |
EDM vs LAK
|
53.1%
|
-0.6%
|
37.6%
|
+0.2%
|
Game 7* |
LAK vs EDM
|
57.7%
|
+4.1%
|
40.1%
|
+2.7%
|
- Over 5.5/6.5 Goals: Probability of the total combined score exceeding this threshold.
- Winner By 2+ Goals: Probability of the favored team winning by 2 or more goals.
* Games 5-7 will only be played if necessary.
Comparison between initial predictions (April 17, 2025) and current predictions (April 25, 2025)