BUF vs PIT - 2025-10-01
2025-10-01 • KeyBank Center
BUF 3 - 5 PIT
🚨 Upset Loss (56% underdog)
📊 Pre-Game Predictions
Win Probability
BUF: 56.2%
PIT: 43.8%
Expected Goals
BUF: 3.33
PIT: 2.98
Total Goals
Median: 6.0
Over 5.5: 59%
Over 6.5: 43%
🥅 Goalie Matchup
BUF
Alex Lyon - 10-6-3 | 0.906 SV% | 2.82 GAA
PIT
Stuart Skinner - 12-11-4 | 0.888 SV% | 2.91 GAA
⚡ In-Game Win Probability
Goals
| Period | Time | Team | Scorer |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 17:42 | BUF | Goal |
| 2 | 19:54 | PIT | Goal |
| 3 | 10:01 | PIT | Goal |
| 3 | 17:57 | PIT | Goal |
| 1 | 17:32 | PIT | Goal |
| 2 | 05:52 | PIT | Goal |
| 3 | 04:29 | PIT | Goal |
| 3 | 11:42 | PIT | Goal |
🎯 Shot Chart
📈 Post-Game Analysis
Prediction Result
❌ Incorrect
Confidence: 56.2%
Total Goals
Actual: 8.0
Expected: 6.3
Score Breakdown
BUF 3 - 5 PIT
Expected: 3.3 - 3.0