NHL Prediction Model Performance | Accuracy & Calibration Stats

See how our NHL prediction model performs: accuracy, Brier scores, calibration, and error metrics across thousands of games.

To understand each metric, read Understanding Performance Metrics . To apply this in practice, view today's NHL predictions, our NHL playoff odds, and in-game win probability charts.

Game Predictions (Multi-Window)

Window	Start	End	Games	Accuracy	Brier	Log Loss	Avg Winner Prob	RMSE Total
last 30	2025-12-20	2026-01-19	231	53.7%	0.2673	0.8363	52.1%	2.592
season to date	2025-10-01	2026-01-19	779	51.9%	0.2591	0.7595	51.3%	2.421
multi season	2023-10-10	2026-01-19	3403	63.3%	0.2299	0.6678	54.4%	2.185

Totals (Over 5.5)

Window	Games	Accuracy	Brier	Log Loss	Avg Outcome Prob
last 30	231	59.3%	0.2447	0.6830	51.6%
season to date	779	54.8%	0.2505	0.6942	51.0%
multi season	3403	61.2%	0.2295	0.6506	53.2%

Playoff Game Performance

Start	End	Games	Accuracy	Brier	Log Loss
2024-04-20	2025-06-17	174	67.2%	0.2242	0.7021

Current Matchups

CAR vs BUF model odds COL vs WSH model odds SEA vs PIT model odds MTL vs MIN model odds TBL vs SJS model odds CBJ vs OTT model odds

Daily Performance (Last 14 Days)

Date	Games	Accuracy	Brier	Log Loss
2026-01-06	10	80.0%	0.1761	0.5238
2026-01-07	5	60.0%	0.3338	0.9241
2026-01-08	12	75.0%	0.2036	0.5917
2026-01-09	3	33.3%	0.2070	0.6025
2026-01-10	14	57.1%	0.2850	0.7667
2026-01-11	5	60.0%	0.2618	0.7189
2026-01-12	9	22.2%	0.3734	1.0122
2026-01-13	10	80.0%	0.1345	0.4322
2026-01-14	4	50.0%	0.1994	0.5707
2026-01-15	10	70.0%	0.2092	0.5894
2026-01-16	5	40.0%	0.3700	3.2426
2026-01-17	13	53.8%	0.2780	0.7528
2026-01-18	3	66.7%	0.1200	0.3641
2026-01-19	10	0.0%	0.5001	—

Calibration (Win Prob Deciles) — Last 30

Bin	Count	Mean Pred	Observed
4	33	48.9%	45.5%
5	86	53.8%	48.8%
6	76	68.8%	56.6%
8	27	86.7%	51.9%
9	9	100.0%	77.8%

Calibration (Win Prob Deciles) — Season To Date

Bin	Count	Mean Pred	Observed
0	1	0.0%	100.0%
4	153	49.2%	49.0%
5	357	53.2%	49.0%
6	199	67.5%	54.8%
7	11	75.0%	45.5%
8	45	85.9%	57.8%
9	13	100.0%	84.6%

Calibration (Win Prob Deciles) — Multi Season

Bin	Count	Mean Pred	Observed
0	13	0.6%	7.7%
1	1	17.5%	0.0%
2	2	23.8%	0.0%
3	2	37.5%	0.0%
4	835	49.0%	32.8%
5	1411	53.1%	54.0%
6	822	67.9%	66.7%
7	40	74.1%	80.0%
8	191	86.3%	79.6%
9	86	99.4%	94.2%

Calibration (Over 5.5) — Last 30

Bin	Count	Mean Pred	Observed
3	1	39.2%	100.0%
4	18	46.2%	55.6%
5	128	55.3%	61.7%
6	78	64.2%	60.3%
7	6	71.6%	50.0%

Calibration (Over 5.5) — Season To Date

Bin	Count	Mean Pred	Observed
3	5	37.2%	100.0%
4	80	46.9%	52.5%
5	403	55.5%	57.3%
6	269	63.7%	52.8%
7	19	73.4%	68.4%
8	2	82.2%	100.0%
9	1	92.4%	100.0%

Calibration (Over 5.5) — Multi Season

Bin	Count	Mean Pred	Observed
1	1	19.4%	0.0%
2	3	28.7%	0.0%
3	36	37.6%	22.2%
4	369	46.7%	27.4%
5	1685	55.6%	51.3%
6	1165	63.6%	67.4%
7	129	73.3%	93.0%
8	14	82.8%	100.0%
9	1	92.4%	100.0%

Team Calibration (Home, Top 15 by Volume)

Team	Count	Mean Pred	Observed	Bias
FLA	132	63.3%	62.1%	+1.2%
EDM	126	62.1%	63.5%	-1.4%
DAL	124	61.3%	62.1%	-0.8%
CAR	123	66.2%	68.3%	-2.1%
TOR	119	59.3%	58.8%	+0.5%
WSH	117	58.9%	56.4%	+2.5%
WPG	116	62.8%	64.7%	-1.9%
VGK	116	60.0%	61.2%	-1.2%
BOS	115	58.0%	54.8%	+3.2%
COL	114	66.2%	70.2%	-3.9%
NYR	112	61.0%	52.7%	+8.3%
LAK	111	60.8%	55.9%	+4.9%
STL	111	55.1%	57.7%	-2.6%
VAN	110	59.0%	46.4%	+12.7%
NSH	110	58.4%	50.9%	+7.5%

Team Calibration (Pred vs Observed)

Mean Pred Observed

Starter Calibration (Home)

Window	Starter Status	Games	Accuracy	Brier	Log Loss
last 30	Starter	231	53.7%	0.2673	0.8363
season to date	Starter	779	51.9%	0.2591	0.7595
multi season	Unknown	18	66.7%	0.2500	0.6931
multi season	Starter	3385	63.2%	0.2298	0.6677

Cross-Validation (Expanding Window)

Folds: 3 | Brier: 0.2496 | Log Loss: 0.6925 | RMSE Total: 2.405

In-Game Checkpoints — Last 30

Checkpoint	Games	Accuracy	Brier	Log Loss
end_p1	226	69.5%	0.2003	0.5816
end_p2	226	79.6%	0.1436	0.4358
ot_start	58	58.6%	0.2117	0.5921
p3_10	226	81.0%	0.1135	0.3504
p3_5	226	82.7%	0.0912	0.2852
pregame	226	51.8%	0.2476	0.6886

In-Game Checkpoints — Season To Date

Checkpoint	Games	Accuracy	Brier	Log Loss
end_p1	769	67.2%	0.2089	0.6017
end_p2	769	77.5%	0.1468	0.4471
ot_start	201	65.7%	0.1974	0.5624
p3_10	769	83.1%	0.1071	0.3339
p3_5	769	85.2%	0.0894	0.2794
pregame	769	51.8%	0.2485	0.6901

In-Game Calibration — Pregame (Last 30 Days)

Bin	Count	Mean Pred	Observed
4	42	48.9%	57.1%
5	137	53.0%	50.4%
6	47	68.6%	63.8%

In-Game Calibration — End P2 (Last 30 Days)

Bin	Count	Mean Pred	Observed
0	29	4.7%	3.4%
1	11	14.1%	27.3%
2	17	26.8%	17.6%
3	16	33.4%	12.5%
4	16	46.2%	43.8%
5	26	54.5%	57.7%
6	19	63.3%	63.2%
7	20	75.4%	70.0%
8	28	85.3%	78.6%
9	44	94.7%	100.0%

In-Game Calibration — P3 10 (Last 30 Days)

Bin	Count	Mean Pred	Observed
0	43	2.1%	2.3%
1	20	15.6%	20.0%
2	14	22.4%	28.6%
3	2	35.9%	50.0%
4	11	45.6%	45.5%
5	23	54.3%	34.8%
6	9	62.8%	44.4%
8	30	86.6%	80.0%
9	74	97.2%	97.3%

xG Model Holdout

Train: 2023-10-10 – 2025-05-13 | Test: 2025-05-13 – 2026-01-06

Shots (test): 60376 | ROC AUC: 0.766 | Log Loss: 0.2271 | Brier: 0.0619

xG Splits — Strength State

Split	Shots	Goal Rate	AUC	Log Loss	Brier
Even	47811	6.2%	0.764	0.2052	0.0546
PP	10736	10.2%	0.691	0.3086	0.0874
PK	1329	6.4%	0.769	0.2088	0.0569
EmptyNet	500	53.6%	0.686	0.6261	0.2208

xG Splits — Shot Type

Split	Shots	Goal Rate	AUC	Log Loss	Brier
wrist	26708	6.7%	0.793	0.2069	0.0559
snap	14811	8.3%	0.751	0.2545	0.0715
slap	6869	5.0%	0.705	0.1865	0.0462
tip-in	5583	6.9%	0.676	0.2402	0.0628
backhand	4441	9.8%	0.792	0.2707	0.0786
deflected	988	11.7%	0.645	0.3405	0.0984
wrap-around	417	3.4%	0.609	0.1510	0.0332
bat	295	10.2%	0.701	0.3079	0.0866
poke	209	14.4%	0.598	0.4121	0.1264
between-legs	35	11.4%	0.742	0.3321	0.0962
nan	17	94.1%	0.406	0.3111	0.0805
cradle	3	0.0%	—	—	0.0161