What is expected goals (xG) in hockey?

Expected goals (xG) estimates the likelihood a shot becomes a goal based on factors like location, angle, shot type, and game state.

How should I use xG to compare teams?

Compare xG for and against per game to see which teams create and allow the best shot quality, alongside finishing rates.

Why can goals differ from xG?

Goals can outpace xG due to hot shooting, goalie performance, or small-sample variance, especially in short windows.

Expected Goals (xG) in Hockey | NHL

Expected Goals (xG) Analysis

Expected Goals (xG) measures shot quality by predicting the probability each shot becomes a goal based on distance, angle, shot type, and game situation. Our xG model is trained on thousands of NHL shots. The tables below use our neutral xG model, which evaluates shot quality independent of the current score — the best lens for comparing teams and players on a level playing field.

Key Metrics:
• xG/G: Expected goals per game (offensive threat)
• xGA/G: Expected goals against per game (defensive exposure)
• Net xG/G: xG/G minus xGA/G (overall xG dominance, >0 is good)
• xG%: Team's share of total xG (xGF / (xGF + xGA) × 100)
• Finishing Rate: Goals / xG (>1.0 = above expectation)
• GSAx: Goals Saved Above Expected (xGA - GA, positive = good goaltending)

Team xG Rankings (2026-27)

Click column headers to sort. Net xG/G >0.3 in green, <0 in red. GSAx >0 = good goaltending.

Team	GP	xG/G	xGA/G	Net xG/G	xG%	Finish	GSAx

Shot Quality by Shot Type (2026-27)

Shot Share and xG Share are league-wide percentages for each shot type.

Shot Type	Unblocked attempts	Shot Share	xG	xG Share	xG/Attempt	Goal Rate

Shot Quality by Zone (2026-27)

Zone codes follow NHL play-by-play conventions (OZ, NZ, DZ).

Zone	Unblocked attempts	Shot Share	xG	xG Share	xG/Attempt	Goal Rate

Player xG Leaderboard (2026-27)

Click column headers to sort. xG/Attempt = total xG / unblocked attempts (goals, saved shots and misses).

Player	Team	GP	Unblocked attempts	Shots on goal	xG	Goals	S%	xG/Attempt

S% = Goals / shots on goal | xG/Attempt = Expected Goals per unblocked attempt

Team Finishing Rates (2026-27)

Finishing Rate = Goals / xG. >1.1 = overperforming (green), <0.9 = underperforming (red). GSAx = Goals Saved Above Expected (positive = good goaltending).

Team	Goals	xG	Finishing Rate	GSAx	GSAx/G

Player Finishing Leaderboard (2026-27, min 50 unblocked attempts)

Δ = Goals − xG. Positive (green) = overperforming xG, negative (red) = underperforming. Click column headers to sort.

Player	Team	G	xG	Δ	S%	xG/Attempt	GP

Player Spotlight

🌟 xG Leaders

Player	Team	Metric	Value
Kirill Kaprizov	MIN	xG	7.2
Brandon Hagel	TBL	xG	5.8
Sam Reinhart	FLA	xG	5.3

⇧ Overperformers

min 50 unblocked attempts

Player	Team	Metric	Value
Tage Thompson	BUF	G−xG	+0.3
Matt Boldy	MIN	G−xG	+0.1

⇩ Underperformers

min 50 unblocked attempts

Player	Team	Metric	Value
Matt Boldy	MIN	G−xG	0.1
Tage Thompson	BUF	G−xG	0.3

Top 15 Most Dramatic Games (Comeback Index)

Comeback Index = max win-probability swing from a team's low point to final. Max Swing = largest single-event change in home win probability. Higher = more drama.

Date	Teams	Comeback	Max Swing	Result
2026-10-15	BUF @ TOR	0.955	0.672	BUF 5–4 TOR (away win)
2026-10-06	NSH @ TOR	0.952	0.495	TOR 5–4 NSH
2026-10-15	VAN @ FLA	0.938	0.660	FLA 3–2 VAN
2026-10-02	BOS @ WPG	0.915	0.477	BOS 4–3 WPG (away win)
2026-10-06	MIN @ BUF	0.913	0.390	BUF 3–2 MIN
2026-10-05	WPG @ PIT	0.891	0.737	WPG 3–2 PIT (away win)
2026-10-08	NSH @ MTL	0.864	0.723	NSH 5–2 MTL (away win)
2026-10-08	SJS @ STL	0.829	0.728	SJS 3–2 STL (away win)
2026-10-10	MIN @ FLA	0.810	0.689	MIN 4–1 FLA (away win)
2026-10-06	FLA @ LAK	0.802	0.643	FLA 2–1 LAK (away win)
2026-10-10	CBJ @ STL	0.781	0.779	STL 5–3 CBJ
2026-10-10	TOR @ COL	0.768	0.728	TOR 6–3 COL (away win)
2026-10-03	CAR @ PHI	0.751	0.389	CAR 3–2 PHI (away win)
2026-10-07	COL @ WPG	0.750	0.599	WPG 3–2 COL
2026-10-02	ANA @ VGK	0.746	0.712	ANA 4–3 VGK (away win)

Based on in-game win probability curves from the 2026-27 NHL season. View in-game dashboards →

Download Data

Game xG Summary (CSV)Player xG Leaderboard (CSV)Team xG Summary (CSV)Shot Type Breakdown (CSV)Zone Breakdown (CSV)

About the xG Model: Our expected goals model uses gradient boosting on shot distance, angle, shot type, game situation (even/power play), rebounds, and rush attempts. The leaderboards above use the neutral variant, which excludes score context so that shot quality comparisons are not skewed by game state. A separate contextual variant (which factors in score differential) is shown per-game on the recent games xG page and on the model performance page.

View: Today's Predictions | Model Performance | Playoff Odds