Expected Goals (xG) - NHL Predictions

Expected Goals (xG) Analysis

Expected Goals (xG) measures shot quality by predicting the probability each shot becomes a goal based on distance, angle, shot type, and game situation. Our xG model is trained on thousands of NHL shots.

Key Metrics:
• xG/Game: Average expected goals per game (offensive threat)
• xG/Shot: Shot quality (higher = better shot selection)
• Finishing Rate: Goals / xG (finishing ability, >1.0 = above expectation)
• High Danger %: Percentage of shots with xG > 0.20

Team xG Rankings (2025-26)

Sorted by xG/Game. Finishing Rate >1.05 in green, <0.95 in red.

Team	GP	Shots/G	xG/G	xG/Shot	Finish	HD%
COL	45	51.2	4.74	0.093	0.87	14.9%
CAR	46	52.0	4.08	0.078	0.85	11.5%
TBL	44	42.1	3.80	0.090	0.93	14.1%
WSH	46	45.1	3.75	0.083	0.89	13.0%
EDM	46	42.6	3.58	0.084	0.97	13.3%
PIT	44	44.1	3.53	0.080	0.93	11.4%
MIN	47	44.4	3.47	0.078	0.94	11.5%
CBJ	45	45.4	3.46	0.076	0.91	10.6%
DAL	46	36.9	3.27	0.089	1.09	14.2%
MTL	46	41.4	3.24	0.078	1.07	10.7%
FLA	45	44.4	3.18	0.071	0.97	9.6%
NYI	45	43.2	3.17	0.073	0.97	9.9%
BUF	44	42.8	3.15	0.074	1.03	10.2%
DET	47	43.2	3.14	0.073	1.01	10.0%
TOR	45	40.4	3.13	0.077	1.09	11.1%
UTA	46	42.8	3.12	0.073	0.97	10.1%
PHI	44	38.8	3.10	0.080	0.99	11.6%
CGY	45	43.2	3.08	0.071	0.83	9.5%
OTT	44	43.4	3.06	0.071	1.06	9.3%
VGK	44	43.4	3.03	0.070	1.09	9.8%
WPG	44	40.5	3.02	0.074	0.99	10.9%
ANA	45	47.9	2.97	0.062	1.14	7.7%
NJD	46	44.3	2.87	0.065	0.95	8.6%
LAK	45	43.5	2.84	0.065	0.96	8.4%
SJS	45	37.6	2.83	0.075	1.13	9.9%
BOS	46	42.8	2.81	0.066	1.18	8.3%
STL	46	37.0	2.80	0.076	0.89	11.3%
NYR	47	40.9	2.79	0.068	0.94	8.6%
VAN	45	44.1	2.75	0.062	1.00	8.1%
NSH	45	42.9	2.68	0.062	1.06	6.3%
CHI	46	39.6	2.64	0.067	1.10	8.0%
SEA	44	39.1	2.60	0.067	1.06	7.6%

Player xG Leaderboard (2025-26)

Top 25 players by total xG (min. 50 shots). xG% = (Goals / xG × 100). Over 110% in green (hot), under 90% in red (cold).

#	Player	Team	GP	Shots	xG	Goals	S%	xG%
1	Nathan MacKinnon	COL	45	272	21.4	37	13.6%	0%
2	Alex DeBrincat	DET	46	249	20.9	24	9.6%	0%
3	Cutter Gauthier	ANA	45	245	20.3	20	8.2%	0%
4	Kirill Kaprizov	MIN	47	250	19.4	26	10.4%	0%
5	Matt Boldy	MIN	46	252	18.9	31	12.3%	0%
6	Dylan Larkin	DET	47	215	18.6	23	10.7%	0%
7	Andrei Svechnikov	CAR	46	209	18.0	13	6.2%	0%
8	Connor McDavid	EDM	44	250	17.9	29	11.6%	0%
9	Auston Matthews	TOR	39	220	17.7	23	10.5%	0%
10	Jakob Chychrun	WSH	44	235	17.3	15	6.4%	0%
11	Sam Reinhart	FLA	45	196	17.0	24	12.2%	0%
12	Jason Robertson	DAL	46	242	17.0	30	12.4%	0%
13	Jack Eichel	VGK	37	185	16.6	16	8.6%	0%
14	Cole Caufield	MTL	46	222	16.5	25	11.3%	0%
15	Dylan Guenther	UTA	46	227	16.4	21	9.3%	0%
16	Zach Werenski	CBJ	41	211	16.4	16	7.6%	0%
17	Alex Ovechkin	WSH	46	210	16.3	20	9.5%	0%
18	David Pastrnak	BOS	40	215	15.9	19	8.8%	0%
19	Nick Suzuki	MTL	46	185	15.7	14	7.6%	0%
20	Evander Kane	VAN	40	174	15.6	7	4.0%	0%
21	Kirill Marchenko	CBJ	41	205	15.6	21	10.2%	0%
22	Leo Carlsson	ANA	42	168	15.6	19	11.3%	0%
23	Kiefer Sherwood	VAN	44	187	15.5	17	9.1%	0%
24	Adrian Kempe	LAK	43	194	15.5	18	9.3%	0%
25	Adam Fantilli	CBJ	44	187	15.4	13	7.0%	0%

S% = Shooting Percentage | xG% = Goals as percentage of Expected Goals

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About the xG Model: Our expected goals model uses gradient boosting on shot distance, angle, shot type, game situation (even/power play), rebounds, and rush attempts. The model is calibrated on thousands of NHL shots to provide accurate probability estimates.

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