Expected Goals (xG) - NHL Predictions
Expected Goals (xG) Analysis
Expected Goals (xG) measures shot quality by predicting the probability each shot becomes a goal based on distance, angle, shot type, and game situation. Our xG model is trained on thousands of NHL shots.
Key Metrics:
• xG/Game: Average expected goals per game (offensive threat)
• xG/Shot: Shot quality (higher = better shot selection)
• Finishing Rate: Goals / xG (finishing ability, >1.0 = above expectation)
• High Danger %: Percentage of shots with xG > 0.20
Team xG Rankings (2025-26)
Sorted by xG/Game. Finishing Rate >1.05 in green, <0.95 in red.
| Team | GP | Shots/G | xG/G | xG/Shot | Finish | HD% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CAR | 21 | 52.3 | 3.58 | 0.068 | 1.00 | 3.9% |
| COL | 21 | 49.0 | 3.43 | 0.070 | 1.14 | 3.8% |
| DET | 22 | 47.6 | 3.30 | 0.069 | 0.98 | 3.9% |
| CBJ | 22 | 46.6 | 3.28 | 0.070 | 0.98 | 4.0% |
| WSH | 23 | 45.6 | 3.27 | 0.072 | 0.96 | 5.8% |
| TBL | 21 | 42.5 | 3.20 | 0.075 | 0.95 | 5.8% |
| DAL | 21 | 37.9 | 3.14 | 0.083 | 1.08 | 7.8% |
| FLA | 21 | 44.6 | 3.11 | 0.070 | 1.04 | 4.3% |
| NYI | 21 | 42.7 | 3.09 | 0.072 | 1.06 | 5.0% |
| VGK | 21 | 44.2 | 3.04 | 0.069 | 1.00 | 4.1% |
| PIT | 21 | 40.8 | 3.02 | 0.074 | 1.18 | 3.7% |
| ANA | 22 | 45.5 | 2.99 | 0.066 | 1.28 | 2.7% |
| EDM | 24 | 42.2 | 2.98 | 0.071 | 1.02 | 4.3% |
| MTL | 21 | 39.3 | 2.97 | 0.076 | 1.11 | 6.4% |
| LAK | 22 | 44.3 | 2.95 | 0.067 | 1.02 | 3.5% |
| UTA | 22 | 41.7 | 2.94 | 0.071 | 1.08 | 4.4% |
| WPG | 20 | 41.9 | 2.93 | 0.070 | 1.21 | 2.7% |
| NJD | 21 | 43.3 | 2.91 | 0.067 | 1.15 | 4.1% |
| BUF | 22 | 43.5 | 2.90 | 0.067 | 1.02 | 3.2% |
| NYR | 23 | 43.5 | 2.87 | 0.066 | 0.85 | 3.5% |
| CGY | 24 | 44.2 | 2.84 | 0.064 | 0.86 | 2.4% |
| STL | 22 | 39.0 | 2.83 | 0.073 | 1.06 | 4.5% |
| PHI | 20 | 38.5 | 2.83 | 0.074 | 1.08 | 3.9% |
| VAN | 23 | 41.6 | 2.81 | 0.068 | 1.21 | 3.8% |
| NSH | 21 | 41.4 | 2.79 | 0.067 | 0.94 | 3.1% |
| MIN | 22 | 43.0 | 2.78 | 0.065 | 1.03 | 2.5% |
| OTT | 21 | 41.1 | 2.78 | 0.068 | 1.20 | 3.5% |
| TOR | 23 | 39.9 | 2.77 | 0.069 | 1.23 | 3.7% |
| BOS | 24 | 41.8 | 2.69 | 0.064 | 1.23 | 4.5% |
| CHI | 21 | 37.9 | 2.56 | 0.068 | 1.23 | 2.8% |
| SEA | 20 | 37.9 | 2.47 | 0.065 | 1.13 | 1.9% |
| SJS | 23 | 34.1 | 2.44 | 0.072 | 1.23 | 4.5% |
Player xG Leaderboard (2025-26)
Top 25 players by total xG (min. 50 shots). xG% = (Goals / xG × 100). Over 110% in green (hot), under 90% in red (cold).
| # | Player | Team | GP | Shots | xG | Goals | S% | xG% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Jason Robertson | DAL | 21 | 130 | 12.2 | 14 | 10.8% | 115% |
| 2 | Sam Reinhart | FLA | 20 | 104 | 11.6 | 10 | 9.6% | 87% |
| 3 | Dylan Larkin | DET | 22 | 114 | 11.5 | 15 | 13.2% | 130% |
| 4 | Alex DeBrincat | DET | 21 | 133 | 11.1 | 10 | 7.5% | 90% |
| 5 | Nathan MacKinnon | COL | 20 | 125 | 10.4 | 14 | 11.2% | 135% |
| 6 | Jake Guentzel | TBL | 20 | 82 | 10.4 | 13 | 15.8% | 125% |
| 7 | Connor McDavid | EDM | 22 | 107 | 10.2 | 9 | 8.4% | 88% |
| 8 | Wyatt Johnston | DAL | 20 | 82 | 9.7 | 12 | 14.6% | 124% |
| 9 | Bo Horvat | NYI | 20 | 93 | 9.7 | 13 | 14.0% | 135% |
| 10 | Kirill Marchenko | CBJ | 22 | 111 | 9.6 | 12 | 10.8% | 126% |
| 11 | John Tavares | TOR | 21 | 95 | 9.5 | 12 | 12.6% | 126% |
| 12 | Mika Zibanejad | NYR | 23 | 112 | 8.9 | 7 | 6.2% | 78% |
| 13 | Jake DeBrusk | VAN | 23 | 89 | 8.9 | 9 | 10.1% | 101% |
| 14 | Artturi Lehkonen | COL | 19 | 77 | 8.8 | 8 | 10.4% | 91% |
| 15 | Tage Thompson | BUF | 22 | 132 | 8.8 | 11 | 8.3% | 125% |
| 16 | Cole Caufield | MTL | 21 | 91 | 8.7 | 15 | 16.5% | 172% |
| 17 | Brandon Hagel | TBL | 18 | 90 | 8.7 | 7 | 7.8% | 81% |
| 18 | Dmitri Voronkov | CBJ | 21 | 81 | 8.6 | 9 | 11.1% | 105% |
| 19 | Seth Jarvis | CAR | 21 | 91 | 8.5 | 12 | 13.2% | 141% |
| 20 | Nazem Kadri | CGY | 24 | 114 | 8.4 | 7 | 6.1% | 83% |
| 21 | Kevin Fiala | LAK | 22 | 107 | 8.4 | 11 | 10.3% | 131% |
| 22 | Shane Pinto | OTT | 20 | 85 | 8.1 | 11 | 12.9% | 136% |
| 23 | Tomas Hertl | VGK | 20 | 77 | 8.1 | 8 | 10.4% | 99% |
| 24 | Jackson Blake | CAR | 20 | 82 | 8.0 | 6 | 7.3% | 75% |
| 25 | Nick Schmaltz | UTA | 22 | 75 | 8.0 | 10 | 13.3% | 126% |
S% = Shooting Percentage | xG% = Goals as percentage of Expected Goals
About the xG Model: Our expected goals model uses gradient boosting on shot distance, angle, shot type, game situation (even/power play), rebounds, and rush attempts. The model is calibrated on thousands of NHL shots to provide accurate probability estimates.
View: Today's Predictions | Model Performance | Playoff Odds