Expected Goals (xG) - NHL Predictions
Expected Goals (xG) Analysis
Expected Goals (xG) measures shot quality by predicting the probability each shot becomes a goal based on distance, angle, shot type, and game situation. Our xG model is trained on thousands of NHL shots.
Key Metrics:
• xG/Game: Average expected goals per game (offensive threat)
• xG/Shot: Shot quality (higher = better shot selection)
• Finishing Rate: Goals / xG (finishing ability, >1.0 = above expectation)
• High Danger %: Percentage of shots with xG > 0.20
Team xG Rankings (2025-26)
Sorted by xG/Game. Finishing Rate >1.05 in green, <0.95 in red.
| Team | GP | Shots/G | xG/G | xG/Shot | Finish | HD% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| COL | 46 | 51.2 | 4.70 | 0.092 | 0.87 | 14.7% |
| CAR | 48 | 52.1 | 4.07 | 0.078 | 0.86 | 11.2% |
| TBL | 46 | 42.7 | 3.81 | 0.089 | 0.91 | 13.4% |
| WSH | 48 | 45.1 | 3.75 | 0.083 | 0.88 | 12.7% |
| EDM | 48 | 43.0 | 3.61 | 0.084 | 0.93 | 13.2% |
| PIT | 46 | 44.2 | 3.56 | 0.081 | 0.93 | 11.2% |
| CBJ | 47 | 46.0 | 3.52 | 0.077 | 0.91 | 10.4% |
| MIN | 48 | 44.5 | 3.46 | 0.078 | 0.94 | 11.2% |
| DAL | 48 | 36.8 | 3.26 | 0.089 | 1.06 | 13.8% |
| MTL | 48 | 41.1 | 3.22 | 0.078 | 1.06 | 10.6% |
| NYI | 47 | 42.9 | 3.18 | 0.074 | 0.96 | 9.8% |
| DET | 49 | 43.3 | 3.16 | 0.073 | 0.99 | 9.8% |
| UTA | 48 | 43.3 | 3.16 | 0.073 | 0.97 | 9.9% |
| BUF | 46 | 42.5 | 3.16 | 0.074 | 1.04 | 10.1% |
| FLA | 46 | 44.1 | 3.15 | 0.071 | 0.96 | 9.6% |
| PHI | 46 | 39.2 | 3.11 | 0.079 | 0.98 | 11.0% |
| TOR | 47 | 40.3 | 3.11 | 0.077 | 1.09 | 10.9% |
| CGY | 47 | 43.0 | 3.11 | 0.072 | 0.83 | 9.7% |
| OTT | 46 | 43.6 | 3.10 | 0.071 | 1.07 | 9.1% |
| WPG | 46 | 40.4 | 3.03 | 0.075 | 1.02 | 10.7% |
| VGK | 46 | 43.2 | 3.00 | 0.069 | 1.11 | 9.5% |
| ANA | 47 | 47.8 | 3.00 | 0.063 | 1.13 | 7.5% |
| LAK | 47 | 43.6 | 2.89 | 0.066 | 0.94 | 8.3% |
| NJD | 47 | 44.2 | 2.86 | 0.065 | 0.95 | 8.5% |
| SJS | 47 | 37.4 | 2.84 | 0.076 | 1.12 | 9.7% |
| BOS | 48 | 42.8 | 2.84 | 0.066 | 1.17 | 8.1% |
| STL | 48 | 37.0 | 2.78 | 0.075 | 0.90 | 11.0% |
| NYR | 48 | 40.7 | 2.76 | 0.068 | 0.96 | 8.5% |
| VAN | 47 | 43.9 | 2.75 | 0.063 | 0.97 | 7.9% |
| NSH | 47 | 42.8 | 2.71 | 0.063 | 1.09 | 6.3% |
| SEA | 46 | 39.1 | 2.63 | 0.067 | 1.03 | 7.6% |
| CHI | 47 | 39.5 | 2.63 | 0.066 | 1.09 | 7.8% |
Player xG Leaderboard (2025-26)
Top 25 players by total xG (min. 50 shots). xG% = (Goals / xG × 100). Over 110% in green (hot), under 90% in red (cold).
| # | Player | Team | GP | Shots | xG | Goals | S% | xG% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Nathan MacKinnon | COL | 46 | 276 | 21.2 | 37 | 13.4% | 0% |
| 2 | Kirill Kaprizov | MIN | 48 | 252 | 20.2 | 26 | 10.3% | 0% |
| 3 | Cutter Gauthier | ANA | 46 | 249 | 20.2 | 20 | 8.0% | 0% |
| 4 | Connor McDavid | EDM | 46 | 260 | 19.5 | 29 | 11.2% | 0% |
| 5 | Jason Robertson | DAL | 48 | 250 | 19.1 | 30 | 12.0% | 0% |
| 6 | Matt Boldy | MIN | 47 | 257 | 19.0 | 31 | 12.1% | 0% |
| 7 | Dylan Larkin | DET | 49 | 227 | 18.8 | 24 | 10.6% | 0% |
| 8 | Cole Caufield | MTL | 48 | 233 | 18.4 | 26 | 11.2% | 0% |
| 9 | Auston Matthews | TOR | 41 | 230 | 18.2 | 24 | 10.4% | 0% |
| 10 | Jakob Chychrun | WSH | 45 | 239 | 18.1 | 15 | 6.3% | 0% |
| 11 | Dylan Guenther | UTA | 48 | 244 | 18.1 | 23 | 9.4% | 0% |
| 12 | Kyle Connor | WPG | 46 | 205 | 17.7 | 22 | 10.7% | 0% |
| 13 | Tage Thompson | BUF | 46 | 232 | 17.7 | 26 | 11.2% | 0% |
| 14 | Alex DeBrincat | DET | 48 | 262 | 17.6 | 25 | 9.5% | 0% |
| 15 | Kevin Fiala | LAK | 45 | 214 | 17.5 | 18 | 8.4% | 0% |
| 16 | Andrei Svechnikov | CAR | 48 | 215 | 17.3 | 14 | 6.5% | 0% |
| 17 | Alex Ovechkin | WSH | 48 | 221 | 17.2 | 20 | 9.0% | 0% |
| 18 | David Pastrnak | BOS | 42 | 226 | 16.9 | 20 | 8.8% | 0% |
| 19 | Nikita Kucherov | TBL | 41 | 209 | 16.7 | 24 | 11.5% | 0% |
| 20 | Macklin Celebrini | SJS | 47 | 234 | 16.7 | 25 | 10.7% | 0% |
| 21 | Jake DeBrusk | VAN | 46 | 199 | 16.3 | 13 | 6.5% | 0% |
| 22 | Sam Reinhart | FLA | 46 | 198 | 16.0 | 24 | 12.1% | 0% |
| 23 | Timo Meier | NJD | 42 | 227 | 16.0 | 12 | 5.3% | 0% |
| 24 | Jack Eichel | VGK | 39 | 197 | 15.9 | 17 | 8.6% | 0% |
| 25 | Zach Werenski | CBJ | 43 | 226 | 15.9 | 18 | 8.0% | 0% |
S% = Shooting Percentage | xG% = Goals as percentage of Expected Goals
About the xG Model: Our expected goals model uses gradient boosting on shot distance, angle, shot type, game situation (even/power play), rebounds, and rush attempts. The model is calibrated on thousands of NHL shots to provide accurate probability estimates.
View: Today's Predictions | Model Performance | Playoff Odds