Articles
Deep-dive NHL analytics articles: model explainers, calibration studies, upset analysis, and playoff odds breakdowns based on our forecasting engine.
Use these articles alongside today's NHL predictions, the NHL playoff odds hub, and model performance to understand the forecasts and the factors behind them.
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The Flood and The Grip — Two NHL Win Signals That Hold Up
Two momentum patterns that reliably predict NHL game winners across three seasons: a team scoring 3+ straight unanswered goals wins 93.7% of the time, and xG dominance in a close game entering the third period wins 64.9%.
What a week of hockey tells you
Records after three games barely predict the rest of the season. Expected-goals share catches up to last season's standings in about ten games; points percentage needs twenty or more.
2026–27 NHL season preview: Colorado gets the Cup pick. Carolina is almost level.
Colorado and Carolina lead our preseason ratings scenarios, with Tampa Bay next. A 100,000-season simulation, Boomer probability comparison, and major offseason changes.
What the shot count hides
Leading teams shoot less, but their average chances are better. We tested what that means for reading a game, previewing a matchup, and predicting the winner.
Carolina Has the Volume. Vegas Has the Slot.
Three games into the Cup Final, Carolina is out-shooting Vegas and losing the chance battle. A look at what's actually driving the series — the line matchup, special teams, and finishing that's hard to repeat.
The Tampa Bay Question
Tampa Bay enters Round 1 with a strong season record and mixed recent results. Here is how those competing signals affect the model forecast.
Last-Day Playoff Projections for 2025-26
Buffalo enters the postseason as the clear Stanley Cup favorite in our seeded 500-simulation refresh, while Anaheim, Colorado, Utah, and Vegas headline a crowded Western race.
Eight Games. New Coach. No Time to Practice.
Vegas fired Bruce Cassidy with eight games left and hired John Tortorella. The numbers explain why — and what happens next.
The Blind Spot in Lineup Analytics - Shift Chart Gaps (2025-26)
A large share of 2025-26 NHL games have no published shift charts yet. That missing deployment data materially impacts lineup and defensive metrics.
Enhancing In-Game Win Probability with Expected Goals
How we integrated shot quality metrics into our in-game win probability model for more nuanced predictions
Understanding Our Expected Goals (xG) Model
A comprehensive overview of our Expected Goals model architecture, features, and methodology
Calibration Outliers — Early 2025–26 (Home Teams)
Which home teams look most over/under‑predicted so far this season based on observed win rates vs model probabilities.
Close-Game DNA — Vegas Golden Knights (2025–26)
Early-season look at how Vegas performs in tight games using our in-game win‑probability dataset (one-goal margins, overtime, and underdog wins).
OT Volatility — Early 2025–26
How often games reach OT and how frequently underdogs prevail — by pregame and end‑of‑regulation probabilities.
Upset Economy — Early 2025–26
How often do teams with less than a 40% pregame win probability win? Observed results compared with model expectations in early 2025–26.
Understanding NHL Win Probability Models
A deep dive into how we build accurate win probability predictions for NHL games
Understanding Performance Metrics
Learn how to interpret model accuracy, Brier scores, calibration curves, and other performance metrics on our Performance page