Articles
Deep-dive NHL analytics articles: model explainers, calibration studies, upset analysis, and playoff odds breakdowns based on our forecasting engine.
Use these articles alongside today's NHL predictions, the NHL playoff odds hub, and model performance to understand both the numbers and the edges behind them.
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Last-Day Playoff Projections for 2025-26
Buffalo enters the postseason as the clear Stanley Cup favorite in our seeded 500-simulation refresh, while Anaheim, Colorado, Utah, and Vegas headline a crowded Western race.
The Flood and The Grip â Two NHL Win Signals That Hold Up
Two momentum patterns that reliably predict NHL game winners across three seasons: a team scoring 3+ straight unanswered goals wins 93.4% of the time, and xG dominance in a close game entering the third period wins 65.9%.
Eight Games. New Coach. No Time to Practice.
Vegas fired Bruce Cassidy with eight games left and hired John Tortorella. The numbers explain why â and what happens next.
The Blind Spot in Lineup Analytics - Shift Chart Gaps (2025-26)
A large share of 2025-26 NHL games have no published shift charts yet. That missing deployment data materially impacts lineup and defensive metrics.
Enhancing In-Game Win Probability with Expected Goals
How we integrated shot quality metrics into our in-game win probability model for more nuanced predictions
Understanding Our Expected Goals (xG) Model
A comprehensive overview of our Expected Goals model architecture, features, and methodology
Calibration Outliers â Early 2025â26 (Home Teams)
Which home teams look most over/underâpredicted so far this season based on observed win rates vs model probabilities.
Upset Economy â Early 2025â26
How often do underdogs cash early this season? Teamâperspective bins (<40% pregame) with observed win rates and modelâfair ROI.
OT Volatility â Early 2025â26
How often games reach OT and how frequently underdogs prevail â by pregame and endâofâregulation probabilities.
Close-Game DNA â Vegas Golden Knights (2025â26)
Early-season look at how Vegas performs in tight games using our in-game winâprobability dataset (one-goal margins, overtime, and underdog wins).
Understanding Performance Metrics
Learn how to interpret model accuracy, Brier scores, calibration curves, and other performance metrics on our Performance page
Understanding NHL Win Probability Models
A deep dive into how we build accurate win probability predictions for NHL games