The Golden Knights came into this season as a team that should win more than they lose. Through their first 10 games, they've done exactly that—but the how tells a more interesting story. Vegas has been living on the edge, and so far, they're comfortable there.
The Early Returns (through October 28)
With a 6–4 record through 10 games, Vegas sits squarely in the middle of the playoff picture. But dig into the margins, and you'll find a team that's been tested in the crucible of one-goal hockey more often than not.
Half of their games this season have been decided by a single goal, and Vegas has emerged with a 3–2 record in those nail-biters—a 60% win rate that slightly outpaces what you'd expect from a coin flip. For context, our model gave them an average pregame win probability of 54.9% across all their games, meaning they're basically performing to script.
Extra hockey, though? That's been a different story. The Knights are just 1–2 in overtime and shootout games, a small-sample quirk that probably says more about variance than any fundamental flaw. Three-on-three overtime is essentially controlled chaos, and over 82 games, these things tend to even out.
Here's what stands out: Vegas hasn't yet faced a third-period comeback situation where they trailed heading into the final frame. Not once. They've either been ahead, tied, or closed out games before needing a dramatic rally. Whether that's good game management or just the luck of the schedule remains to be seen, but it does mean we haven't yet witnessed how this team responds when the walls close in.
The Golden Knights have also pulled off two wins as underdogs—games where the pregame odds were against them—showing they can punch above their weight when necessary. Meanwhile, their games have been remarkably stable: zero lead changes on average. When Vegas gets ahead, they tend to stay ahead. When they fall behind, they haven't had to claw back yet.
What It Means
Ten games is barely enough to draw any sweeping conclusions, but Vegas appears to be a team comfortable in tight spaces. They're winning the games they're supposed to win and splitting the toss-ups at a reasonable clip.
The overtime struggles are worth monitoring—if that continues, it could be the difference between a division title and a wild card spot by April—but for now, it's noise in a small sample. What's more telling is their ability to avoid the kind of chaotic, back-and-forth games that can drain a team's confidence. With an average of zero lead changes per game, Vegas has been methodical rather than dramatic.
As the schedule deepens and the calendar turns, the real test will come when they inevitably find themselves trailing after two periods against a hot opponent. Every team faces that moment eventually. How the Golden Knights respond will tell us whether this early-season edge is sustainable—or just a fortunate start.
For now, Vegas looks like a team that knows how to win the games that matter most: the ones decided by the smallest of margins.