Henderson Silver Knights
NHLForecasts covers the Henderson Silver Knights, the AHL affiliate of the Vegas Golden Knights, and the prospects who come through Henderson. The coverage is independent and built on public data: game-by-game analysis of the AHL season and a model of which young players go on to become NHL regulars.
Prospect board
Data through November 13, 2026: 13 Henderson games, the last on November 12, 2026.
Reading of November 13, 2026, after Henderson's first 13 games (the last on November 12, 2026). P(NHL regular) is a model's chance that the player becomes an NHL regular: at least 40% of his team's NHL games over the next three seasons, about 98 of 246. It is a probability, not a scouting grade.
| Skater | Pos | Age | GP | PTS | Drafted | P(NHL regular) | End of 2025-26 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alexander Holtz | F | 24.9 | 11 | 12 | NJD #7 | 39% | — |
| Lukas Cormier | D | 24.8 | 8 | 9 | VGK #68 | 12% | 17% |
| Tuomas Uronen | F | 21.8 | 11 | 2 | VGK #192 | 11% | 12% |
| Ben Hemmerling | F | 22.7 | 10 | 3 | VGK #177 | 11% | 22% |
| Alex Weiermair | F | 21.6 | 11 | 2 | VGK #186 | 10% | — |
| Matyas Sapovaliv | F | 22.9 | 13 | 10 | VGK #48 | 10% | 10% |
| Trent Swick | F | 22.7 | 7 | 1 | VGK #180 | 7% | — |
| Viliam Kmec | D | 23.0 | 13 | 3 | — | 6% | 8% |
| Jackson Hallum | F | 24.3 | 13 | 3 | VGK #91 | 5% | 5% |
| Kai Uchacz | F | 23.5 | 3 | 0 | — | 5% | 24% |
| Jordan Gustafson | F | 22.9 | 4 | 1 | VGK #79 | 4% | — |
| Joe Fleming | F | 23.5 | 13 | 4 | — | 4% | 4% |
| Jakub Demek | F | 23.6 | 12 | 1 | VGK #128 | 3% | — |
| Mathieu Cataford | F | 21.8 | 12 | 1 | VGK #77 | 3% | 4% |
| Sloan Stanick | F | 23.4 | 5 | 2 | — | 3% | — |
The board scores skaters aged 25 or younger with fewer than 100 career NHL games, so experienced players such as Alexander Holtz (more than 100 NHL games) are not listed. Rosters change with call-ups and assignments; the board shows players who had played for Henderson by its date.
Goalies are not on the board yet: the in-season goalie reading has not been back-tested, so it stays off the page until it is.
How the model works and how well it has done
The skater model is a logistic regression on age, position, size, draft slot, league-adjusted AHL scoring and NHL games played, fitted on AHL seasons from 2008-09 on. In a walk-forward test (each season scored by a model trained only on seasons whose outcomes were already known), 2013-14 to 2022-23, it scored 4,175 player-seasons with an AUC of 0.837 and a Brier score of 0.1127, against 0.1474 for the 18% base rate. In November a player's scoring this season is shrunk toward his previous season; a replay of November 2021 and 2022 ran about 2 points low on average, so treat moves under about 10 points as noise. The model leans on NHL call-ups, and AHL scorers who had not been called up have historically reached the NHL more often than it predicted. A pre-registered test of a call-up adjustment passed three of its four checks but failed the fourth, which required it to come within 5 points in that uncalled group (it predicted 35% against 42% actual), so the board still uses the original model.
AHL data: theahl.com (HockeyTech). Independent analysis; not affiliated with the Henderson Silver Knights, the Vegas Golden Knights, the AHL or the NHL.
Henderson articles
Henderson's Three Young Goalies Are Splitting One Crease
Lindbom, Whitehead and Moysevich, all Vegas picks aged 23 or younger, have Henderson third in the AHL in save percentage. Here is how much of that is sample size.
Matyas Sapovaliv's Jump Started Last Winter
Sapovaliv has nine points in ten Henderson games. His scoring rate rose in the second half of 2025-26; what's new this season is how often he shoots.
Alexander Holtz Has 12 Points in Eight Henderson Games
The 2020 No. 7 pick is tied for third in AHL points per game after a short October recall to Vegas. His shot rate is the number most likely to hold.
Cormier and Heinola Have Five Points Each, Scored Differently
Henderson defensemen Lukas Cormier and Ville Heinola rank sixth and seventh in AHL points per game. Cormier's points are at even strength; Heinola's are on the power play.