2026-04-15 • NHLForecasts

The Flood and The Grip

We tracked two in-game momentum patterns across 3,604 completed NHL regular-season games (2023–2026) and found two signals that genuinely predict winners — one based on goals, one based on shot quality.

The Flood

Definition: A team scores 3 or more consecutive unanswered goals at any point in a game.

Named for the way a lead can rush in all at once, The Flood is the clearest momentum kill-shot in hockey. When a team scores 3 straight without an answer, they win 93.4% of the time. The pattern appears in roughly 60.7% of all games.

The effect scales sharply with streak length:

The jump from 2 to 3 consecutive goals is where it becomes nearly decisive. A 2-goal run is common and competitive (79% win rate). A 3-goal run is a different conversation.

The Grip

Definition: Entering the third period, a team's cumulative xG (expected goals) exceeds their opponent's by 1.5 or more, while the score is within 1 goal.

The Grip identifies teams that are dominating the shot quality battle in close games — regardless of what the scoreboard says. When a team holds The Grip entering the third, they win 65.9% of the time. It occurs in roughly 5.9% of games.

What makes The Grip analytically interesting: it's a score-independent signal. The game is close on the scoreboard, but one team has been generating significantly better scoring chances all night. That pattern converts to wins far more often than chance.

Multi-Season Validation

Both metrics hold up consistently across seasons. The win rates aren't an artifact of a single year.

The Flood — Win Rate by Season

The Grip — Win Rate by Season

2025-26 Season Leaders

Most Flood Games

Teams that trigger The Flood the most frequently this season.

Most Grip Games

Teams that hold The Grip entering the third the most frequently this season.

Methodology

Data: All completed NHL regular-season games since 2023–24, sourced from the NHL API and stored in a local database.

The Flood is computed by walking each game's goal events in sequence, inferring which team scored from running score changes. The longest consecutive unanswered run is recorded per game; any team reaching 3+ qualifies as a Flood game.

The Grip is computed by summing per-shot xG (expected goals, from a gradient-boosted shot quality model) for each team through the first two periods. If one team leads in cumulative xG by ≥1.5 and the score is within 1 goal at period 2 end, that team holds The Grip.

Win rate is computed as regulation/OT/SO winner — standard NHL game outcome. Both metrics are updated each time the pipeline runs.

Caveats: The Grip applies only to close games (within 1 goal entering the third) by design. The overall win rates for The Flood include all game contexts — high-scoring blowouts and tight games alike. The Grip's win rate is the more conservative, honest signal precisely because it controls for score context.

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