Recent Games xG - NHL Predictions
Recent Games - xG Analysis
Game-by-game comparison of expected goals (xG) vs actual goals. See which teams are outperforming or underperforming their shot quality.
xG = neutral model (score-independent shot quality). Ctx = contextual model (accounts for score differential — trailing teams tend to take more desperation shots). A large gap between xG and Ctx can indicate a team was chasing the game.
Last 50 Games
Diff = Goals - xG. Positive (green) = outperformed xG, negative (red) = underperformed.
| Date | Away | Shots | xG | Ctx | Goals | Diff | Home | Shots | xG | Ctx | Goals | Diff | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-15 | DAL | 41 | 2.9 | 3.9 | 4 | +1.1 | @ | BUF | 47 | 4.3 | 4.8 | 3 | -1.3 |
| 2026-04-15 | NYR | 35 | 3.1 | 3.2 | 4 | +0.9 | @ | TBL | 50 | 4.5 | 4.5 | 2 | -2.5 |
| 2026-04-15 | DET | 41 | 2.5 | 2.4 | 1 | -1.5 | @ | FLA | 42 | 4.0 | 4.1 | 8 | +4.0 |
| 2026-04-15 | TOR | 33 | 1.6 | 1.6 | 1 | -0.6 | @ | OTT | 57 | 5.1 | 5.1 | 3 | -2.1 |
| 2026-04-15 | SJS | 28 | 1.7 | 1.7 | 2 | +0.3 | @ | CHI | 37 | 3.1 | 3.5 | 5 | +1.9 |
| 2026-04-15 | SEA | 29 | 1.6 | 1.7 | 1 | -0.6 | @ | VGK | 49 | 3.3 | 3.3 | 4 | +0.7 |
| 2026-04-14 | NJD | 40 | 2.0 | 2.0 | 0 | -2.0 | @ | BOS | 41 | 2.7 | 2.7 | 4 | +1.3 |
| 2026-04-14 | CAR | 36 | 3.0 | 3.0 | 2 | -1.0 | @ | NYI | 39 | 2.6 | 2.6 | 1 | -1.6 |
| 2026-04-14 | MTL | 42 | 3.0 | 3.0 | 2 | -1.0 | @ | PHI | 29 | 2.3 | 2.3 | 4 | +1.7 |
| 2026-04-14 | WSH | 37 | 4.0 | 4.0 | 2 | -2.0 | @ | CBJ | 37 | 2.6 | 2.5 | 1 | -1.6 |
| 2026-04-14 | ANA | 63 | 5.0 | 5.0 | 2 | -3.0 | @ | MIN | 36 | 4.4 | 4.6 | 3 | -1.4 |
| 2026-04-14 | WPG | 36 | 2.5 | 2.4 | 3 | +0.5 | @ | UTA | 58 | 4.4 | 4.6 | 5 | +0.6 |
| 2026-04-14 | COL | 54 | 4.5 | 4.5 | 3 | -1.5 | @ | CGY | 42 | 3.0 | 2.9 | 1 | -2.0 |
| 2026-04-14 | PIT | 35 | 2.5 | 2.5 | 5 | +2.5 | @ | STL | 44 | 4.9 | 5.0 | 7 | +2.1 |
| 2026-04-14 | LAK | 46 | 3.3 | 3.3 | 3 | -0.3 | @ | VAN | 35 | 2.4 | 2.4 | 4 | +1.6 |
| 2026-04-13 | DET | 44 | 3.1 | 3.0 | 3 | -0.1 | @ | TBL | 34 | 2.9 | 2.9 | 4 | +1.1 |
| 2026-04-13 | NYR | 45 | 3.9 | 3.8 | 2 | -1.9 | @ | FLA | 34 | 2.6 | 2.6 | 3 | +0.4 |
| 2026-04-13 | CAR | 49 | 3.5 | 2.7 | 2 | -1.5 | @ | PHI | 34 | 5.1 | 4.7 | 3 | -2.1 |
| 2026-04-13 | DAL | 47 | 4.7 | 4.7 | 6 | +1.3 | @ | TOR | 40 | 2.4 | 2.4 | 5 | +2.6 |
| 2026-04-13 | MIN | 45 | 3.5 | 3.4 | 3 | -0.5 | @ | STL | 36 | 3.8 | 3.7 | 6 | +2.2 |
| 2026-04-13 | SJS | 41 | 3.4 | 3.4 | 3 | -0.4 | @ | NSH | 42 | 3.6 | 3.6 | 2 | -1.6 |
| 2026-04-13 | BUF | 41 | 3.2 | 3.1 | 5 | +1.8 | @ | CHI | 29 | 1.9 | 1.9 | 1 | -0.9 |
| 2026-04-13 | COL | 60 | 5.8 | 7.2 | 2 | -3.8 | @ | EDM | 49 | 3.5 | 4.2 | 1 | -2.5 |
| 2026-04-13 | LAK | 54 | 5.2 | 5.4 | 5 | -0.2 | @ | SEA | 52 | 2.7 | 2.6 | 3 | +0.3 |
| 2026-04-13 | WPG | 32 | 2.2 | 2.2 | 2 | -0.2 | @ | VGK | 53 | 3.6 | 3.6 | 6 | +2.4 |
| 2026-04-12 | PIT | 43 | 3.1 | 3.0 | 0 | -3.1 | @ | WSH | 36 | 2.2 | 2.2 | 3 | +0.8 |
| 2026-04-12 | MTL | 36 | 3.5 | 3.6 | 4 | +0.5 | @ | NYI | 52 | 4.2 | 4.0 | 1 | -3.2 |
| 2026-04-12 | BOS | 39 | 2.2 | 2.2 | 3 | +0.8 | @ | CBJ | 55 | 3.8 | 3.8 | 2 | -1.8 |
| 2026-04-12 | OTT | 39 | 3.4 | 3.3 | 3 | -0.4 | @ | NJD | 49 | 3.9 | 3.9 | 4 | +0.1 |
| 2026-04-12 | VAN | 34 | 2.6 | 2.6 | 4 | +1.4 | @ | ANA | 40 | 3.6 | 3.5 | 3 | -0.6 |
| 2026-04-12 | UTA | 47 | 2.4 | 2.4 | 1 | -1.4 | @ | CGY | 34 | 2.8 | 2.8 | 4 | +1.2 |
| 2026-04-11 | TBL | 29 | 2.8 | 2.7 | 2 | -0.8 | @ | BOS | 43 | 2.3 | 2.3 | 1 | -1.3 |
| 2026-04-11 | OTT | 27 | 2.2 | 2.3 | 3 | +0.8 | @ | NYI | 39 | 3.0 | 2.9 | 0 | -3.0 |
| 2026-04-11 | WSH | 48 | 3.9 | 4.0 | 6 | +2.1 | @ | PIT | 27 | 2.0 | 2.2 | 3 | +1.0 |
| 2026-04-11 | EDM | 42 | 2.4 | 2.4 | 0 | -2.4 | @ | LAK | 33 | 2.3 | 2.4 | 1 | -1.3 |
| 2026-04-11 | NJD | 49 | 4.6 | 4.6 | 5 | +0.4 | @ | DET | 45 | 3.3 | 3.3 | 3 | -0.3 |
| 2026-04-11 | STL | 37 | 3.0 | 3.0 | 5 | +2.0 | @ | CHI | 50 | 3.3 | 3.2 | 3 | -0.3 |
| 2026-04-11 | MIN | 43 | 3.1 | 3.0 | 1 | -2.1 | @ | NSH | 34 | 2.9 | 2.9 | 2 | -0.9 |
| 2026-04-11 | NYR | 38 | 2.2 | 2.2 | 0 | -2.2 | @ | DAL | 33 | 3.4 | 3.4 | 2 | -1.4 |
| 2026-04-11 | CAR | 48 | 5.7 | 5.7 | 4 | -1.7 | @ | UTA | 48 | 3.6 | 3.7 | 1 | -2.6 |
| 2026-04-11 | FLA | 43 | 4.3 | 4.4 | 6 | +1.7 | @ | TOR | 37 | 2.8 | 2.8 | 2 | -0.8 |
| 2026-04-11 | CBJ | 49 | 5.0 | 5.0 | 5 | +0.0 | @ | MTL | 36 | 2.7 | 2.6 | 2 | -0.7 |
| 2026-04-11 | PHI | 36 | 2.2 | 2.2 | 7 | +4.8 | @ | WPG | 44 | 2.8 | 2.8 | 1 | -1.8 |
| 2026-04-11 | CGY | 41 | 1.7 | 1.7 | 1 | -0.7 | @ | SEA | 37 | 3.1 | 3.1 | 4 | +0.9 |
| 2026-04-11 | VGK | 53 | 3.9 | 3.9 | 3 | -0.9 | @ | COL | 53 | 3.6 | 3.6 | 2 | -1.6 |
| 2026-04-11 | VAN | 59 | 5.4 | 5.3 | 4 | -1.4 | @ | SJS | 48 | 4.3 | 3.6 | 3 | -1.3 |
| 2026-04-09 | TOR | 46 | 2.3 | 2.3 | 3 | +0.7 | @ | NYI | 64 | 6.8 | 6.7 | 5 | -1.8 |
| 2026-04-09 | CBJ | 57 | 3.7 | 3.7 | 0 | -3.7 | @ | BUF | 35 | 2.3 | 2.5 | 5 | +2.7 |
| 2026-04-09 | TBL | 27 | 2.1 | 2.1 | 1 | -1.1 | @ | MTL | 43 | 4.3 | 4.3 | 2 | -2.3 |
| 2026-04-09 | FLA | 37 | 1.9 | 1.9 | 1 | -0.9 | @ | OTT | 46 | 4.3 | 4.3 | 5 | +0.7 |
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