Recent Games xG - NHL Predictions

Recent Games - xG Analysis

Game-by-game comparison of expected goals (xG) vs actual goals. See which teams are outperforming or underperforming their shot quality.

xG = neutral model (score-independent shot quality). Ctx = contextual model (accounts for score differential — trailing teams tend to take more desperation shots). A large gap between xG and Ctx can indicate a team was chasing the game.

Last 50 Games

Diff = Goals - xG. Positive (green) = outperformed xG, negative (red) = underperformed.

Date	Away	Unblocked attempts	xG	Ctx	Goals	Diff		Home	Unblocked attempts	xG	Ctx	Goals	Diff
2026-10-15	BUF	49	2.8	2.7	5	+2.2	@	TOR	42	2.8	2.8	4	+1.2
2026-10-15	NYI	39	2.5	2.0	1	-1.5	@	OTT	36	4.1	4.1	2	-2.1
2026-10-15	PHI	27	2.5	2.4	1	-1.5	@	DET	47	3.8	3.8	2	-1.8
2026-10-15	SEA	40	2.9	2.8	3	+0.1	@	TBL	49	3.7	3.6	4	+0.3
2026-10-15	VAN	34	3.3	3.1	2	-1.3	@	FLA	52	4.3	4.1	3	-1.3
2026-10-15	NYR	28	1.8	1.6	1	-0.8	@	NJD	45	3.2	3.1	7	+3.8
2026-10-15	WPG	49	3.5	3.3	3	-0.5	@	CHI	39	3.1	3.0	4	+0.9
2026-10-15	SJS	53	4.4	4.7	3	-1.4	@	NSH	61	4.7	3.9	2	-2.7
2026-10-15	STL	36	3.2	3.2	4	+0.8	@	MIN	56	5.0	4.7	5	+0.0
2026-10-15	UTA	39	3.6	3.5	4	+0.4	@	EDM	39	2.0	2.0	2	-0.0
2026-10-15	CGY	48	3.5	3.4	2	-1.5	@	VGK	42	4.2	4.1	6	+1.8
2026-10-14	MTL	50	3.4	3.4	4	+0.6	@	WSH	40	4.0	3.9	5	+1.0
2026-10-14	DAL	36	2.8	3.1	3	+0.2	@	COL	45	3.8	3.7	2	-1.8
2026-10-13	NJD	53	4.9	4.8	5	+0.1	@	DET	39	2.2	2.1	4	+1.8
2026-10-13	FLA	47	4.3	4.3	7	+2.7	@	CBJ	44	3.8	3.6	3	-0.8
2026-10-13	BUF	28	2.6	3.1	3	+0.4	@	MTL	51	4.3	5.8	4	-0.3
2026-10-13	WSH	33	2.5	2.5	2	-0.5	@	CAR	54	4.7	4.8	4	-0.7
2026-10-13	SEA	48	4.3	4.2	3	-1.3	@	PHI	42	4.4	4.2	2	-2.4
2026-10-13	TBL	42	2.5	2.4	1	-1.5	@	NYR	31	3.0	3.0	4	+1.0
2026-10-13	STL	41	3.6	3.5	7	+3.4	@	OTT	26	1.8	1.7	2	+0.2
2026-10-13	VAN	41	3.1	2.9	2	-1.1	@	NYI	46	3.2	3.1	3	-0.2
2026-10-13	PIT	45	3.8	4.0	3	-0.8	@	CHI	26	3.2	3.2	5	+1.8
2026-10-13	MIN	39	2.7	2.5	2	-0.7	@	WPG	39	2.8	2.7	5	+2.2
2026-10-13	COL	38	3.3	3.1	3	-0.3	@	DAL	40	3.1	2.9	2	-1.1
2026-10-13	VGK	35	1.9	1.9	5	+3.1	@	NSH	38	2.5	2.6	2	-0.5
2026-10-13	TOR	40	3.1	2.9	4	+0.9	@	UTA	41	2.6	2.5	5	+2.4
2026-10-13	CGY	53	4.7	4.8	4	-0.7	@	ANA	50	3.1	3.1	2	-1.1
2026-10-13	EDM	26	1.9	2.0	4	+2.1	@	LAK	59	3.2	3.3	1	-2.2
2026-10-13	BOS	39	4.0	4.0	6	+2.0	@	SJS	44	3.1	3.0	3	-0.1
2026-10-12	FLA	46	3.7	3.5	3	-0.7	@	BUF	43	3.8	3.7	5	+1.2
2026-10-12	OTT	31	3.9	3.9	4	+0.1	@	NJD	49	3.0	2.9	1	-2.0
2026-10-12	VGK	44	3.1	2.9	2	-1.1	@	MIN	48	4.3	4.2	4	-0.3
2026-10-11	SEA	43	4.9	4.8	5	+0.1	@	WSH	47	3.8	3.5	3	-0.8
2026-10-11	VAN	39	1.9	1.8	2	+0.1	@	NYR	41	3.4	3.4	6	+2.6
2026-10-11	CAR	44	3.4	3.2	4	+0.6	@	PHI	34	1.7	1.6	1	-0.7
2026-10-10	PHI	28	1.3	1.2	1	-0.3	@	BOS	46	3.3	3.2	5	+1.7
2026-10-10	VAN	33	2.4	2.2	1	-1.4	@	NJD	48	3.8	3.6	4	+0.2
2026-10-10	EDM	37	4.0	3.8	3	-1.0	@	SJS	33	1.6	1.6	1	-0.6
2026-10-10	MIN	52	5.2	5.2	4	-1.2	@	FLA	45	3.3	3.1	1	-2.3
2026-10-10	UTA	56	4.7	4.6	4	-0.7	@	BUF	39	2.9	2.8	1	-1.9
2026-10-10	DET	46	5.0	3.6	0	-5.0	@	MTL	57	5.5	4.0	1	-4.5
2026-10-10	NSH	32	3.1	3.3	2	-1.1	@	OTT	42	3.7	4.5	3	-0.7
2026-10-10	DAL	41	3.8	4.1	1	-2.8	@	PIT	46	3.9	5.3	2	-1.9
2026-10-10	CAR	56	3.6	3.5	5	+1.4	@	CHI	37	2.6	2.6	2	-0.6
2026-10-10	CBJ	39	1.7	1.6	3	+1.3	@	STL	37	3.6	3.6	5	+1.4
2026-10-10	TOR	33	3.3	3.1	6	+2.7	@	COL	52	4.4	4.1	3	-1.4
2026-10-10	TBL	32	3.0	2.7	5	+2.0	@	NYI	31	2.4	2.5	3	+0.6
2026-10-10	ANA	40	3.4	3.4	4	+0.6	@	CGY	44	3.3	3.2	2	-1.3
2026-10-10	LAK	42	1.9	1.8	1	-0.9	@	VGK	46	2.6	2.5	2	-0.6
2026-10-09	SEA	40	3.5	3.6	6	+2.5	@	DET	58	4.1	4.0	3	-1.1

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