PIT vs BUF - 2025-10-03
2025-10-03 • PPG Paints Arena
PIT 5 - 4 BUF
🚨 Upset Win (56% underdog)
📊 Pre-Game Predictions
Win Probability
PIT: 44.5%
BUF: 55.5%
Expected Goals
PIT: 3.20
BUF: 4.26
Total Goals
Median: 7.5
Over 5.5: 75%
Over 6.5: 63%
🥅 Goalie Matchup
PIT
Stuart Skinner - 12-11-4 | 0.888 SV% | 2.91 GAA
BUF
Alex Lyon - 10-6-3 | 0.906 SV% | 2.82 GAA
⚡ In-Game Win Probability
Goals
| Period | Time | Team | Scorer |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 08:59 | PIT | Goal |
| 2 | 10:05 | BUF | Goal |
| 2 | 16:37 | BUF | Goal |
| 3 | 06:45 | BUF | Goal |
| 3 | 13:54 | PIT | Goal |
| 2 | 03:53 | PIT | Goal |
| 2 | 07:42 | BUF | Goal |
| 2 | 13:53 | BUF | Goal |
| 4 | 00:09 | PIT | Goal |
🎯 Shot Chart
📈 Post-Game Analysis
Prediction Result
❌ Incorrect
Confidence: 55.5%
Total Goals
Actual: 9.0
Expected: 7.5
Score Breakdown
PIT 5 - 4 BUF
Expected: 3.2 - 4.3