A month into the 2025–26 season, a few home teams have diverged sharply from what our model expected. The lists below compare projected home win probability against actual results since October 1st, for teams with at least three home games. The samples are small — these gaps will narrow as the season goes on — but the early outliers are worth a look.
Where the model ran too high
New York Rangers — 64.3% projected across six home games, 0-for-6 actual. A 64.3-point miss, the widest gap on the board.
Calgary Flames — 52.2% projected over six home games, zero wins.
Columbus Blue Jackets — the model loved Columbus at home (76.5%), but they have one win in four (25.0%), a 51.5-point gap.
San Jose Sharks — winless through five home games against a 35.9% projection. No one expected the Sharks to dominate, but going 0-for-5 at home still lands well under the line.
Los Angeles Kings — one win in four home games despite a 53.8% average projection, roughly 29 points light.
Where the model ran too low
New Jersey Devils — 5-for-5 at home against a 63.5% projection, 36.5 points better than expected.
Utah Hockey Club — 6-for-6 in their inaugural season against a 65.6% projection, 34.4 points over.
Seattle Kraken — 4-for-4 against a 72.5% projection, 27.5 points over.
Florida Panthers — 5-1 (83.3%) against a 59.7% expectation, a 23.6-point surplus from the defending champions.
Detroit Red Wings — six home wins in seven (85.7%) against a 65.1% projection, 20.6 points over.
What to make of it
Most of these gaps are small-sample noise. A hot goalie, a soft schedule, or a few bounces can swing a five-game home record by 40 points without telling you anything durable about the team. By the time each club has played 30 or 40 home games, most of this will have washed out.
The question worth holding onto is which of these is early signal — whether New Jersey is genuinely a better home team than we priced, or the Rangers genuinely worse. We don't know yet, and neither does anyone claiming otherwise a month in. That's the honest read on October hockey: the data is telling a story, but not yet which parts of it will still be true in February.
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