Colorado is our preseason Stanley Cup pick, with Carolina close enough that I wouldn't argue over the order. Tampa Bay is the next team I'd put in that conversation.
That comes from a specific exercise: take the team strengths implied by our September 9 game forecasts, hold them fixed, and simulate the season 100,000 times. Colorado wins the Cup in 13.7% of those seasons, Carolina in 13.2%, and Tampa Bay in 10.4%.
These are ratings-only scenarios. They don't yet include a complete numerical adjustment for summer transactions or returning injured players. Florida, especially, shows why that distinction matters.
We also captured Boomer's Cup and conference markets to see how our baseline compares with an outside forecast. “Conference” below means winning the conference playoffs and reaching the Stanley Cup Final.
| Team | Our conference scenario | Boomer conference | Our Cup scenario | Boomer Cup |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Colorado | 23.5% | 20.8% | 13.7% | 10.7% |
| Carolina | 22.1% | 16.4% | 13.2% | 8.9% |
| Tampa Bay | 18.3% | 11.7% | 10.4% | 6.2% |
| Vegas | 13.9% | 15.1% | 7.1% | 7.3% |
| Ottawa | 12.0% | 4.6% | 6.4% | 2.2% |
| Utah | 10.4% | 6.9% | 5.1% | 3.1% |
| Edmonton | 10.6% | 12.8% | 5.1% | 6.7% |
| Dallas | 8.9% | 9.3% | 4.3% | 4.2% |
| Washington | 5.9% | 8.2% | 2.7% | 4.2% |
| Florida | 2.8% | 18.2% | 1.2% | 10.0% |
Boomer's figures are implied probabilities normalized to total 100% within each market. That's a proportional adjustment for the bookmaker's margin, not a claim that one source has the true probabilities. The snapshot was taken September 9 at 8:58 p.m. Pacific. Boomer Cup market, Eastern Conference, Western Conference.
Carolina actually has the slightly higher neutral team rating. Colorado moves ahead when we simulate qualification and the playoff bracket. Both average about 105 regular-season points in the baseline. Their separation is too small to support a strong claim that one is better.
Colorado–Carolina is our most frequent Final pairing. It still happens in only 5.2% of simulations. Even the favorite fails to win the Cup about 86% of the time.
The top three also survive a few changes in assumptions. Reducing every team-strength difference by 25% puts Colorado at 11.0% Cup probability; increasing those differences by 25% puts it at 16.1%. Carolina ranges from 10.5% to 15.9%, Tampa Bay from 8.6% to 12.0%. Adding a conventional home advantage leaves the same three on top. Those are sensitivity ranges, not confidence intervals.
The baseline's division favorites are Tampa Bay in the Atlantic, Carolina in the Metropolitan, Colorado in the Central, and Vegas in the Pacific. None reaches a 50% chance of winning its division. Minnesota and Winnipeg sit close to the Western playoff line, at about 52% and 49% qualification probability.
Florida is where I would push back hardest against our own numbers.
Aleksander Barkov reports that he is healthy after missing last season. NHL.com. The Panthers also acquired Brady Tkachuk from Ottawa. Trade report. A calculation built around the last available dressed lineup cannot be treated as a complete assessment of that team.
There's a major change in goal, too: Sergei Bobrovsky signed with Toronto, while Florida acquired Jacob Markstrom from New Jersey. Bobrovsky signing, Markstrom trade.
I would include Florida among the serious contenders despite its low baseline number. Boomer makes the Panthers the Eastern favorite. Our 1.2% Cup result is a reason to question the completeness of our inputs before questioning everybody else's assessment. We haven't estimated the net effect of those changes, so there's no defensible replacement percentage to print yet.
Ottawa is the other side of that problem. The Senators' 6.4% baseline Cup probability is much higher than Boomer's 2.2%, but the old lineup still informs our rating. Ottawa added William Eklund from San Jose. Trade report. How the new lineup replaces what left is an unresolved question, not an automatic endorsement of our higher number.
The summer also gives us reasons to qualify the picks at the top. Colorado traded Valeri Nichushkin to Columbus and signed Jaden Schwartz. Nichushkin trade, Schwartz signing. Carolina lost Frederik Andersen to Edmonton. Signing report. Those changes need to enter a proper roster and goalie projection before we attach much significance to a half-point difference in Cup probability.
Tampa Bay signed John Carlson. Signing report. The Lightning already rank third in our unchanged-ratings exercise, which makes them the challenger I'd watch most closely. The current calculation hasn't awarded them extra credit for the signing.
Utah is my longer-shot team to follow: about a 5% Cup chance in the baseline. The Mammoth acquired Vincent Trocheck and sent Sean Durzi to the Rangers in the deal, while JJ Peterka went to Boston. Trocheck trade, Peterka trade. That is enough turnover to resist calling the offseason a simple upgrade.
Washington deserves a closer look than its 2.7% baseline suggests after acquiring Alex Tuch and Jordan Kyrou. Tuch trade, Kyrou trade. Vegas, meanwhile, traded Pavel Dorofeyev to the Rangers. Trade report. New Jersey added Luke Evangelista. Trade report. These are specific changes to revisit once projected roles and usage are clearer.
The calculation uses all 1,344 scheduled games in the new 84-game season. NHL schedule announcement. We simulated divisional qualification, wild cards and four best-of-seven rounds. NHL playoff format. The main scenario uses neutral ice, a fixed overtime rate and simplified final tiebreaks. Team strengths never change during a simulated season.
Running 100,000 seasons makes simulation noise small—roughly two-tenths of a percentage point either way for the leading Cup estimates. It doesn't make the ratings accurate to that precision. This season-to-Cup calculation has not been backtested, and its probabilities should be read as conditional scenarios. Our earlier opening-season research supports retaining the underlying game model among the alternatives tested; it doesn't establish the accuracy of these Cup numbers.
My September picks are Colorado for the Cup, Carolina for the East, and Tampa Bay as the closest challenger to that pair. Utah is the longer shot I'll follow. Florida is the team most likely to make this unchanged-ratings baseline look badly out of date.
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