Three-on-three overtime is supposed to flatten the odds: open ice, sudden death, anyone can win. Through the first month of 2025–26, it hasn't worked out that way for underdogs.
Nearly a quarter of games reach overtime
Through October 2025, 39 of the season's first 168 games needed overtime — a 23.2% rate, in line with recent seasons. About one game in four goes past regulation.
Favorites are holding their ground in OT
Pregame underdogs have won just 35.9% of those 39 overtime games. Judge by the end of regulation instead — once we know how the 60 minutes actually played out — and underdogs win 41.0% of the time.
Compare that to games that finish in regulation, where underdogs win 47.3% by pregame odds. Favorites are converting in overtime at a higher rate than they win games outright in regulation — the opposite of what you'd expect if three-on-three were a true coin flip.
What this tells us
The early read is that skill carries into overtime rather than washing out. Maybe it's depth — better teams can keep rolling skilled forwards into the extra frame — or maybe the same edges that made them favorites simply still apply on open ice. With 39 games it's suggestive, not settled. A larger sample will help show whether the model underestimates how often favored teams win in overtime.
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