Three-on-three overtime is supposed to flatten the odds: open ice, sudden death, anyone can win. Through the first month of 2025–26, it hasn't worked out that way for underdogs.
Nearly a quarter of games reach overtime
Through October 2025, 39 of the season's first 168 games needed overtime — a 23.2% rate, in line with recent seasons. About one game in four goes past regulation.
Favorites are holding their ground in OT
Pregame underdogs have won just 35.9% of those 39 overtime games. Judge by the end of regulation instead — once we know how the 60 minutes actually played out — and underdogs win 41.0% of the time.
Compare that to games that finish in regulation, where underdogs win 47.3% by pregame odds. Favorites are converting in overtime at a higher rate than they win games outright in regulation — the opposite of what you'd expect if three-on-three were a true coin flip.
What this tells us
The early read is that skill carries into overtime rather than washing out. Maybe it's depth — better teams can keep rolling skilled forwards into the extra frame — or maybe the same edges that made them favorites simply still apply on open ice. With 39 games it's suggestive, not settled. If it holds, it means markets and models might be slightly underrating how well favorites close in overtime, not overrating it.
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