Montreal Canadiens at Toronto Maple Leafs NHL Predictions

2021-10-13 • Scotiabank Arena

Toronto Maple Leafs 2 - 1 Montreal Canadiens

🚨 Upset Win (51% underdog)

Win Probability

TOR: 48.6%

MTL: 51.4%

Expected Goals

TOR: 2.93

MTL: 3.45

Total Goals

Median: 6.1

Over 5.5: 60%

Over 6.5: 47%

TOR

J. Campbell

MTL

J. Allen

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
TOR	J. Campbell	32	31	1	96.9%	2.59	0	1.59
MTL	J. Allen	30	28	2	93.3%	3.95	2	1.95

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Model accuracy in this matchup: 65% • TOR at home vs MTL: 8-2

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-09-29	TOR 2 - 3 MTL	MTL	MTL
2026-03-10	MTL 3 - 1 TOR	MTL	MTL
2025-12-06	TOR 1 - 2 MTL	MTL	MTL
2025-11-22	MTL 5 - 2 TOR	MTL	MTL
2025-10-08	TOR 5 - 2 MTL	TOR	TOR

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	TOR	18	1	1.47
1	MTL	12	0	1.01
2	TOR	20	1	1.65
2	MTL	13	0	0.71
3	TOR	13	0	0.84
3	MTL	16	0	0.87

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 51.4%

Total Goals

Actual: 3.0

Expected: 6.4

Score Breakdown

Toronto Maple Leafs 2 - 1 Montreal Canadiens

Expected: 2.9 - 3.5