Pittsburgh Penguins at Florida Panthers NHL Predictions

2021-10-14 • FLA Live Arena

Florida Panthers 5 - 4 Pittsburgh Penguins (OT)

🚨 Upset Win (78% underdog)

Win Probability

FLA: 22.4%

PIT: 77.6%

Expected Goals

FLA: 3.81

PIT: 4.64

Total Goals

Median: 6.1

Over 5.5: 59%

Over 6.5: 49%

FLA

Sergei Bobrovsky - 17-9-1 | 0.888 SV% | 2.80 GAA

PIT

C. DeSmith

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
FLA	Sergei Bobrovsky	47	43	4	91.5%	3.98	1	-0.02
PIT	C. DeSmith	39	34	5	87.2%	3.38	0	-1.62

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Model accuracy in this matchup: 67% • FLA at home vs PIT: 5-2

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-04-05	PIT 5 - 2 FLA	PIT	PIT
2026-04-04	PIT 9 - 4 FLA	PIT	PIT
2025-10-23	FLA 3 - 5 PIT	PIT	FLA
2025-03-23	FLA 4 - 3 PIT	FLA	FLA
2025-01-03	FLA 3 - 2 PIT	FLA	FLA

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	FLA	16	0	1.03
1	PIT	15	1	1.19
2	FLA	16	0	1.09
2	PIT	23	0	1.35
3	FLA	17	0	0.94
3	PIT	21	0	1.34
4	FLA	2	0	0.32
4	PIT	1	0	0.10

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 77.6%

Total Goals

Actual: 9.0

Expected: 8.4

Score Breakdown

Florida Panthers 5 - 4 Pittsburgh Penguins

Expected: 3.8 - 4.6