Vancouver Canucks at Philadelphia Flyers NHL Predictions

2021-10-15 • Wells Fargo Center

Philadelphia Flyers 4 - 5 Vancouver Canucks (SO)

Win Probability

PHI: 39.7%

VAN: 60.3%

Expected Goals

PHI: 2.90

VAN: 5.27

Total Goals

Median: 6.9

Over 5.5: 67%

Over 6.5: 56%

PHI

C. Hart

VAN

Thatcher Demko - 8-8-0 | 0.905 SV% | 2.72 GAA

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
PHI	C. Hart	41	35	6	85.4%	5.79	4	-0.21
VAN	Thatcher Demko	36	32	4	88.9%	2.59	0	-1.41

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Model accuracy in this matchup: 70% • PHI at home vs VAN: 3-2

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2025-12-30	VAN 3 - 6 PHI	PHI	PHI
2025-12-22	PHI 5 - 2 VAN	PHI	PHI
2024-10-19	PHI 0 - 3 VAN	VAN	VAN
2024-10-11	VAN 2 - 3 PHI	PHI	PHI
2023-12-28	VAN 1 - 4 PHI	PHI	PHI

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	PHI	21	0	1.07
1	VAN	7	0	0.42
2	PHI	14	0	0.69
2	VAN	17	1	1.50
3	PHI	10	0	0.48
3	VAN	18	1	1.63
4	PHI	2	0	0.24
4	VAN	6	0	0.62
5	PHI	2	0	0.12
5	VAN	2	2	1.62

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

✅ Correct

Confidence: 60.3%

Total Goals

Actual: 9.0

Expected: 8.2

Score Breakdown

Philadelphia Flyers 4 - 5 Vancouver Canucks

Expected: 2.9 - 5.3