Dallas Stars at Boston Bruins NHL Predictions

2021-10-16 • TD Garden

Boston Bruins 3 - 1 Dallas Stars

Win Probability

BOS: 55.2%

DAL: 44.8%

Expected Goals

BOS: 3.81

DAL: 3.66

Total Goals

Median: 6.5

Over 5.5: 64%

Over 6.5: 50%

BOS

Jeremy Swayman - 15-10-2 | 0.903 SV% | 2.84 GAA

DAL

B. Holtby

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
BOS	Jeremy Swayman	28	27	1	96.4%	1.96	0	0.96
DAL	B. Holtby	40	37	3	92.5%	3.36	1	0.36

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Model accuracy in this matchup: 50% • BOS at home vs DAL: 4-1

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-03-31	BOS 6 - 3 DAL	BOS	DAL
2026-01-20	DAL 6 - 2 BOS	DAL	DAL
2024-11-14	DAL 7 - 2 BOS	DAL	DAL
2024-10-24	BOS 2 - 5 DAL	DAL	DAL
2024-02-19	BOS 4 - 3 DAL	BOS	DAL

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	BOS	18	0	0.72
1	DAL	8	0	0.40
2	BOS	18	0	0.65
2	DAL	14	0	0.84
3	BOS	16	1	1.98
3	DAL	17	0	0.72

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

✅ Correct

Confidence: 55.2%

Total Goals

Actual: 4.0

Expected: 7.5

Score Breakdown

Boston Bruins 3 - 1 Dallas Stars

Expected: 3.8 - 3.7