Arizona Coyotes at Buffalo Sabres NHL Predictions

2021-10-16 • KeyBank Center

Buffalo Sabres 2 - 1 Arizona Coyotes (SO)

Win Probability

BUF: 54.2%

ARI: 45.8%

Expected Goals

BUF: 3.30

ARI: 3.15

Total Goals

Median: 5.6

Over 5.5: 56%

Over 6.5: 43%

BUF

D. Tokarski

ARI

K. Vejmelka - 12-21-0 | 0.891 SV% | 3.67 GAA

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
BUF	D. Tokarski	23	21	2	91.3%	2.36	2	0.36
ARI	K. Vejmelka	36	33	3	91.7%	4.64	4	1.64

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Model accuracy in this matchup: 83% • BUF at home vs ARI: 2-1

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2023-12-16	ARI 2 - 0 BUF	ARI	ARI
2023-12-11	BUF 5 - 2 ARI	BUF	BUF
2022-12-17	ARI 2 - 5 BUF	BUF	BUF
2022-11-08	BUF 1 - 4 ARI	ARI	BUF
2022-01-29	ARI 1 - 3 BUF	BUF	BUF

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	BUF	18	1	1.32
1	ARI	8	0	0.30
2	BUF	8	1	0.78
2	ARI	11	1	1.12
3	BUF	14	0	0.68
3	ARI	7	0	0.11
4	BUF	3	0	0.18
4	ARI	2	0	0.03
5	BUF	3	2	1.67
5	ARI	3	1	0.79

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

✅ Correct

Confidence: 54.2%

Total Goals

Actual: 3.0

Expected: 6.5

Score Breakdown

Buffalo Sabres 2 - 1 Arizona Coyotes

Expected: 3.3 - 3.1