New York Rangers at Montreal Canadiens NHL Predictions

2021-10-16 • Centre Bell

Montreal Canadiens 1 - 3 New York Rangers

Win Probability

MTL: 44.2%

NYR: 55.8%

Expected Goals

MTL: 2.97

NYR: 2.75

Total Goals

Median: 6.0

Over 5.5: 54%

Over 6.5: 42%

MTL

J. Allen

NYR

Igor Shesterkin - 16-12-4 | 0.910 SV% | 2.51 GAA

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
MTL	J. Allen	24	21	3	87.5%	2.63	2	-0.37
NYR	Igor Shesterkin	32	31	1	96.9%	2.71	1	1.71

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Model accuracy in this matchup: 73% • MTL at home vs NYR: 2-5

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-04-02	NYR 2 - 3 MTL	MTL	MTL
2025-12-13	NYR 5 - 4 MTL	NYR	NYR
2025-10-18	MTL 3 - 4 NYR	NYR	MTL
2025-01-19	MTL 5 - 4 NYR	MTL	MTL
2024-11-30	NYR 4 - 3 MTL	NYR	NYR

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	MTL	8	0	0.55
1	NYR	11	0	0.34
2	MTL	14	0	0.72
2	NYR	14	1	1.26
3	MTL	17	1	1.44
3	NYR	10	1	1.03

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

✅ Correct

Confidence: 55.8%

Total Goals

Actual: 4.0

Expected: 5.7

Score Breakdown

Montreal Canadiens 1 - 3 New York Rangers

Expected: 3.0 - 2.8