Vancouver Canucks at Detroit Red Wings NHL Predictions

2021-10-16 • Little Caesars Arena

Detroit Red Wings 3 - 1 Vancouver Canucks

🚨 Upset Win (65% underdog)

Win Probability

DET: 34.9%

VAN: 65.1%

Expected Goals

DET: 2.62

VAN: 2.99

Total Goals

Median: 6.7

Over 5.5: 76%

Over 6.5: 62%

DET

T. Greiss

VAN

J. Halak

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
DET	T. Greiss	41	40	1	97.6%	3.28	3	2.28
VAN	J. Halak	21	18	3	85.7%	2.54	2	-0.46

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Model accuracy in this matchup: 60% • DET at home vs VAN: 4-1

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-01-08	DET 5 - 1 VAN	DET	DET
2025-12-08	VAN 0 - 4 DET	DET	DET
2025-02-02	VAN 2 - 3 DET	DET	VAN
2024-12-01	DET 4 - 5 VAN	VAN	VAN
2024-02-15	VAN 4 - 1 DET	VAN	VAN

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	DET	6	0	0.27
1	VAN	12	0	0.37
2	DET	13	0	1.14
2	VAN	13	2	1.12
3	DET	7	2	1.13
3	VAN	27	1	1.78

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 65.1%

Total Goals

Actual: 4.0

Expected: 5.6

Score Breakdown

Detroit Red Wings 3 - 1 Vancouver Canucks

Expected: 2.6 - 3.0