Chicago Blackhawks at Pittsburgh Penguins NHL Predictions

2021-10-16 • PPG Paints Arena

Pittsburgh Penguins 5 - 2 Chicago Blackhawks

Win Probability

PIT: 84.0%

CHI: 16.0%

Expected Goals

PIT: 3.55

CHI: 2.53

Total Goals

Median: 6.7

Over 5.5: 68%

Over 6.5: 52%

PIT

Tristan Jarry - 16-12-6 | 0.892 SV% | 3.12 GAA

CHI

M. Fleury

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
PIT	Tristan Jarry	20	18	2	90.0%	2.21	2	0.21
CHI	M. Fleury	26	21	5	80.8%	2.39	0	-2.61

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Model accuracy in this matchup: 70% • PIT at home vs CHI: 3-2

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-01-29	PIT 6 - 2 CHI	PIT	PIT
2025-12-28	CHI 3 - 7 PIT	PIT	PIT
2025-04-08	PIT 5 - 0 CHI	PIT	PIT
2025-04-06	CHI 3 - 1 PIT	CHI	CHI
2024-02-15	CHI 1 - 4 PIT	PIT	CHI

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	PIT	18	0	1.31
1	CHI	3	1	0.28
2	PIT	10	0	0.57
2	CHI	17	1	1.74
3	PIT	7	0	0.52
3	CHI	5	0	0.19

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

✅ Correct

Confidence: 84.0%

Total Goals

Actual: 7.0

Expected: 6.1

Score Breakdown

Pittsburgh Penguins 5 - 2 Chicago Blackhawks

Expected: 3.6 - 2.5