Dallas Stars at Ottawa Senators NHL Predictions

2021-10-17 • Canadian Tire Centre

Ottawa Senators 3 - 2 Dallas Stars

Win Probability

OTT: 65.1%

DAL: 34.9%

Expected Goals

OTT: 2.93

DAL: 3.05

Total Goals

Median: 6.7

Over 5.5: 67%

Over 6.5: 51%

OTT

F. Gustavsson

DAL

A. Khudobin

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
OTT	F. Gustavsson	34	32	2	94.1%	2.10	2	0.10
DAL	A. Khudobin	27	24	3	88.9%	2.70	0	-0.30

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Model accuracy in this matchup: 40% • OTT at home vs DAL: 4-1

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2025-11-30	DAL 6 - 1 OTT	DAL	OTT
2025-11-11	OTT 2 - 3 DAL	DAL	OTT
2025-01-12	OTT 3 - 2 DAL	OTT	OTT
2025-01-02	DAL 4 - 2 OTT	DAL	OTT
2024-02-22	OTT 4 - 1 DAL	OTT	DAL

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	OTT	13	0	0.77
1	DAL	7	1	0.43
2	OTT	18	0	1.21
2	DAL	21	0	1.20
3	OTT	8	0	0.73
3	DAL	16	1	0.47

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

✅ Correct

Confidence: 65.1%

Total Goals

Actual: 5.0

Expected: 6.0

Score Breakdown

Ottawa Senators 3 - 2 Dallas Stars

Expected: 2.9 - 3.0