Vancouver Canucks at Buffalo Sabres NHL Predictions

2021-10-19 • KeyBank Center

Buffalo Sabres 5 - 2 Vancouver Canucks

Win Probability

BUF: 65.3%

VAN: 34.7%

Expected Goals

BUF: 2.15

VAN: 2.84

Total Goals

Median: 6.2

Over 5.5: 56%

Over 6.5: 39%

BUF

C. Anderson

VAN

Thatcher Demko - 8-8-0 | 0.905 SV% | 2.72 GAA

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
BUF	C. Anderson	34	32	2	94.1%	2.59	3	0.59
VAN	Thatcher Demko	43	38	5	88.4%	4.23	2	-0.77

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Model accuracy in this matchup: 70% • BUF at home vs VAN: 2-3

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-01-06	BUF 5 - 3 VAN	BUF	BUF
2025-12-11	VAN 2 - 3 BUF	BUF	BUF
2025-01-21	VAN 2 - 3 BUF	BUF	VAN
2024-11-29	BUF 3 - 4 VAN	VAN	VAN
2024-03-19	VAN 3 - 2 BUF	VAN	VAN

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	BUF	17	0	0.84
1	VAN	9	3	1.02
2	BUF	18	0	1.19
2	VAN	10	0	0.44
3	BUF	20	2	2.20
3	VAN	20	0	1.13

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

✅ Correct

Confidence: 65.3%

Total Goals

Actual: 7.0

Expected: 5.0

Score Breakdown

Buffalo Sabres 5 - 2 Vancouver Canucks

Expected: 2.1 - 2.8