Florida Panthers at Tampa Bay Lightning NHL Predictions

2021-10-19 • Amalie Arena

Tampa Bay Lightning 1 - 4 Florida Panthers

Win Probability

TBL: 38.3%

FLA: 61.7%

Expected Goals

TBL: 3.00

FLA: 4.17

Total Goals

Median: 6.4

Over 5.5: 59%

Over 6.5: 48%

TBL

Andrei Vasilevskiy - 15-7-2 | 0.913 SV% | 2.33 GAA

FLA

Spencer Knight - 0-0-0 | 0.000 SV% | 0.00 GAA

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
TBL	Andrei Vasilevskiy	32	28	4	87.5%	3.70	3	-0.30
FLA	Spencer Knight	31	30	1	96.8%	2.53	0	1.53

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Model accuracy in this matchup: 61% • TBL at home vs FLA: 7-10

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-02-05	TBL 6 - 1 FLA	TBL	TBL
2025-12-27	FLA 2 - 4 TBL	TBL	TBL
2025-12-15	TBL 2 - 5 FLA	FLA	TBL
2025-11-15	FLA 1 - 3 TBL	TBL	TBL
2025-04-30	TBL 3 - 6 FLA	FLA	FLA

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	TBL	15	0	0.92
1	FLA	15	0	0.87
2	TBL	10	0	0.70
2	FLA	11	0	0.67
3	TBL	17	0	0.90
3	FLA	15	3	2.17

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

✅ Correct

Confidence: 61.7%

Total Goals

Actual: 5.0

Expected: 7.2

Score Breakdown

Tampa Bay Lightning 1 - 4 Florida Panthers

Expected: 3.0 - 4.2