Dallas Stars at Pittsburgh Penguins NHL Predictions

2021-10-19 • PPG Paints Arena

Pittsburgh Penguins 1 - 2 Dallas Stars (SO)

🚨 Upset Loss (56% underdog)

Win Probability

PIT: 56.3%

DAL: 43.7%

Expected Goals

PIT: 3.33

DAL: 2.34

Total Goals

Median: 6.2

Over 5.5: 64%

Over 6.5: 46%

PIT

Tristan Jarry - 16-12-6 | 0.892 SV% | 3.12 GAA

DAL

B. Holtby

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
PIT	Tristan Jarry	32	29	3	90.6%	4.42	3	1.42
DAL	B. Holtby	31	29	2	93.5%	3.37	1	1.37

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Model accuracy in this matchup: 50% • PIT at home vs DAL: 1-4

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-03-28	PIT 3 - 6 DAL	DAL	PIT
2025-12-07	DAL 3 - 2 PIT	DAL	DAL
2025-04-05	DAL 3 - 5 PIT	PIT	DAL
2024-11-11	PIT 1 - 7 DAL	DAL	DAL
2024-03-22	DAL 4 - 2 PIT	DAL	DAL

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	PIT	11	0	0.56
1	DAL	12	0	0.60
2	PIT	13	0	0.64
2	DAL	7	0	0.48
3	PIT	11	0	0.88
3	DAL	10	0	0.79
4	PIT	6	0	0.45
4	DAL	7	1	0.75
5	PIT	3	1	0.84
5	DAL	3	2	1.80

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 56.3%

Total Goals

Actual: 3.0

Expected: 5.7

Score Breakdown

Pittsburgh Penguins 1 - 2 Dallas Stars

Expected: 3.3 - 2.3