Boston Bruins at Philadelphia Flyers NHL Predictions

2021-10-20 • Wells Fargo Center

Philadelphia Flyers 6 - 3 Boston Bruins

🚨 Upset Win (52% underdog)

Win Probability

PHI: 47.9%

BOS: 52.1%

Expected Goals

PHI: 2.92

BOS: 3.18

Total Goals

Median: 5.8

Over 5.5: 55%

Over 6.5: 39%

PHI

M. Jones

BOS

Jeremy Swayman - 15-10-2 | 0.903 SV% | 2.84 GAA

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
PHI	M. Jones	40	37	3	92.5%	2.37	2	-0.63
BOS	Jeremy Swayman	25	19	6	76.0%	2.41	1	-3.59

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Model accuracy in this matchup: 53% • PHI at home vs BOS: 4-4

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-04-05	PHI 2 - 1 BOS	PHI	PHI
2026-02-28	PHI 3 - 1 BOS	PHI	PHI
2026-01-29	BOS 6 - 3 PHI	BOS	BOS
2024-12-07	BOS 4 - 3 PHI	BOS	BOS
2024-11-02	PHI 0 - 3 BOS	BOS	PHI

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	PHI	9	0	0.58
1	BOS	12	0	0.47
2	PHI	12	0	0.64
2	BOS	22	2	1.43
3	PHI	9	1	1.19
3	BOS	15	0	0.47

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 52.1%

Total Goals

Actual: 9.0

Expected: 6.1

Score Breakdown

Philadelphia Flyers 6 - 3 Boston Bruins

Expected: 2.9 - 3.2