Calgary Flames at Detroit Red Wings NHL Predictions

2021-10-21 • Little Caesars Arena

Detroit Red Wings 0 - 3 Calgary Flames

🚨 Upset Loss (52% underdog)

Win Probability

DET: 52.0%

CGY: 48.0%

Expected Goals

DET: 2.32

CGY: 2.81

Total Goals

Median: 6.5

Over 5.5: 67%

Over 6.5: 54%

DET

A. Nedeljkovic

CGY

J. Markstrom

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
DET	A. Nedeljkovic	29	26	3	89.7%	2.40	1	-0.60
CGY	J. Markstrom	33	33	0	100.0%	2.00	0	2.00

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Model accuracy in this matchup: 30% • DET at home vs CGY: 4-1

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-03-16	DET 5 - 2 CGY	DET	DET
2025-12-10	CGY 3 - 4 DET	DET	CGY
2025-02-01	CGY 1 - 3 DET	DET	CGY
2024-11-27	DET 2 - 1 CGY	DET	DET
2024-02-17	CGY 0 - 5 DET	DET	CGY

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	DET	15	0	0.62
1	CGY	14	0	0.82
2	DET	17	0	0.92
2	CGY	6	0	0.30
3	DET	14	0	0.47
3	CGY	16	1	1.28

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 52.0%

Total Goals

Actual: 3.0

Expected: 5.1

Score Breakdown

Detroit Red Wings 0 - 3 Calgary Flames

Expected: 2.3 - 2.8