Boston Bruins at Buffalo Sabres NHL Predictions

2021-10-22 • KeyBank Center

Buffalo Sabres 1 - 4 Boston Bruins

🚨 Upset Loss (66% underdog)

Win Probability

BUF: 66.3%

BOS: 33.7%

Expected Goals

BUF: 3.33

BOS: 2.77

Total Goals

Median: 5.6

Over 5.5: 54%

Over 6.5: 41%

BUF

C. Anderson

BOS

L. Ullmark

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
BUF	C. Anderson	26	22	4	84.6%	2.71	1	-1.29
BOS	L. Ullmark	36	35	1	97.2%	2.48	0	1.48

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Model accuracy in this matchup: 60% • BUF at home vs BOS: 4-9

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-05-01	BOS 1 - 4 BUF	BUF	BUF
2026-04-28	BUF 1 - 2 BOS	BOS	BUF
2026-04-26	BOS 1 - 6 BUF	BUF	BUF
2026-04-23	BOS 1 - 3 BUF	BUF	BUF
2026-04-21	BUF 2 - 4 BOS	BOS	BUF

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	BUF	19	0	1.14
1	BOS	7	0	0.56
2	BUF	15	0	0.94
2	BOS	16	0	0.51
3	BUF	12	0	0.39
3	BOS	11	1	1.64

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 66.3%

Total Goals

Actual: 5.0

Expected: 6.1

Score Breakdown

Buffalo Sabres 1 - 4 Boston Bruins

Expected: 3.3 - 2.8