Edmonton Oilers at Vegas Golden Knights NHL Predictions

2021-10-22 • T-Mobile Arena

Vegas Golden Knights 3 - 5 Edmonton Oilers

Win Probability

VGK: 42.6%

EDM: 57.4%

Expected Goals

VGK: 2.41

EDM: 5.28

Total Goals

Median: 6.7

Over 5.5: 64%

Over 6.5: 51%

VGK

R. Lehner

EDM

M. Koskinen

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
VGK	R. Lehner	33	28	5	84.8%	4.12	4	-0.88
EDM	M. Koskinen	39	36	3	92.3%	3.19	0	0.19

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Model accuracy in this matchup: 47% • VGK at home vs EDM: 4-11

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-04-04	EDM 1 - 5 VGK	VGK	VGK
2026-03-26	VGK 3 - 4 EDM	EDM	VGK
2026-03-08	VGK 2 - 4 EDM	EDM	VGK
2025-12-21	EDM 4 - 3 VGK	EDM	EDM
2025-05-14	VGK 0 - 1 EDM	EDM	EDM

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	VGK	15	0	1.05
1	EDM	10	2	0.85
2	VGK	14	0	0.62
2	EDM	23	1	1.89
3	VGK	27	0	1.52
3	EDM	11	1	1.38

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

✅ Correct

Confidence: 57.4%

Total Goals

Actual: 8.0

Expected: 7.7

Score Breakdown

Vegas Golden Knights 3 - 5 Edmonton Oilers

Expected: 2.4 - 5.3