Colorado Avalanche at Tampa Bay Lightning NHL Predictions

2021-10-23 • Amalie Arena

Tampa Bay Lightning 3 - 4 Colorado Avalanche (SO)

🚨 Upset Loss (52% underdog)

Win Probability

TBL: 51.7%

COL: 48.3%

Expected Goals

TBL: 3.20

COL: 3.19

Total Goals

Median: 6.2

Over 5.5: 61%

Over 6.5: 46%

TBL

Andrei Vasilevskiy - 15-7-2 | 0.913 SV% | 2.33 GAA

COL

D. Kuemper

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
TBL	Andrei Vasilevskiy	31	25	6	80.6%	5.70	3	-0.30
COL	D. Kuemper	34	29	5	85.3%	4.60	2	-0.40

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Model accuracy in this matchup: 62% • TBL at home vs COL: 5-3

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-01-06	TBL 4 - 2 COL	TBL	COL
2025-11-04	COL 3 - 2 TBL	COL	COL
2024-11-25	TBL 8 - 2 COL	TBL	COL
2024-10-30	COL 2 - 5 TBL	TBL	COL
2024-02-15	TBL 6 - 3 COL	TBL	TBL

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	TBL	18	0	0.97
1	COL	10	0	0.72
2	TBL	16	0	0.95
2	COL	17	0	1.33
3	TBL	12	0	0.60
3	COL	7	0	0.27
4	TBL	3	0	0.31
4	COL	5	0	0.64
5	TBL	6	2	1.77
5	COL	6	3	2.74

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 51.7%

Total Goals

Actual: 7.0

Expected: 6.4

Score Breakdown

Tampa Bay Lightning 3 - 4 Colorado Avalanche

Expected: 3.2 - 3.2