Buffalo Sabres at New Jersey Devils NHL Predictions

2021-10-23 • Prudential Center

New Jersey Devils 2 - 1 Buffalo Sabres (OT)

Win Probability

NJD: 60.4%

BUF: 39.6%

Expected Goals

NJD: 3.21

BUF: 3.02

Total Goals

Median: 6.2

Over 5.5: 59%

Over 6.5: 44%

NJD

Nico Daws - 3-1-0 | 0.939 SV% | 1.60 GAA

BUF

D. Tokarski

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
NJD	Nico Daws	25	24	1	96.0%	2.86	3	1.86
BUF	D. Tokarski	39	37	2	94.9%	3.83	2	1.83

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Model accuracy in this matchup: 60% • NJD at home vs BUF: 5-3

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-02-25	NJD 1 - 2 BUF	BUF	NJD
2025-12-21	NJD 1 - 3 BUF	BUF	NJD
2025-11-28	BUF 0 - 5 NJD	NJD	BUF
2025-02-02	BUF 4 - 3 NJD	BUF	NJD
2024-10-05	NJD 3 - 1 BUF	NJD	NJD

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	NJD	15	0	0.83
1	BUF	18	0	1.29
2	NJD	20	2	1.87
2	BUF	9	1	0.50
3	NJD	19	0	0.90
3	BUF	7	2	0.92
4	NJD	3	0	0.24
4	BUF	1	0	0.15

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

✅ Correct

Confidence: 60.4%

Total Goals

Actual: 3.0

Expected: 6.2

Score Breakdown

New Jersey Devils 2 - 1 Buffalo Sabres

Expected: 3.2 - 3.0