Toronto Maple Leafs at Pittsburgh Penguins NHL Predictions

2021-10-23 • PPG Paints Arena

Pittsburgh Penguins 7 - 1 Toronto Maple Leafs

Win Probability

PIT: 69.0%

TOR: 31.0%

Expected Goals

PIT: 3.42

TOR: 3.05

Total Goals

Median: 6.9

Over 5.5: 75%

Over 6.5: 60%

PIT

Tristan Jarry - 16-12-6 | 0.892 SV% | 3.12 GAA

TOR

J. Campbell

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
PIT	Tristan Jarry	29	28	1	96.6%	2.58	0	1.58
TOR	J. Campbell	33	26	7	78.8%	3.65	1	-3.35

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Model accuracy in this matchup: 73% • PIT at home vs TOR: 3-4

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2025-12-23	TOR 6 - 3 PIT	TOR	TOR
2025-11-29	PIT 2 - 7 TOR	TOR	PIT
2025-11-03	TOR 4 - 3 PIT	TOR	TOR
2025-03-02	PIT 5 - 6 TOR	TOR	TOR
2024-12-07	PIT 5 - 2 TOR	PIT	PIT

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	PIT	13	0	0.87
1	TOR	21	0	1.39
2	PIT	15	0	1.28
2	TOR	16	0	0.98
3	PIT	13	1	1.50
3	TOR	6	0	0.21

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

✅ Correct

Confidence: 69.0%

Total Goals

Actual: 8.0

Expected: 6.5

Score Breakdown

Pittsburgh Penguins 7 - 1 Toronto Maple Leafs

Expected: 3.4 - 3.0