Tampa Bay Lightning at Buffalo Sabres NHL Predictions

2021-10-25 • KeyBank Center

Buffalo Sabres 5 - 1 Tampa Bay Lightning

Win Probability

BUF: 54.2%

TBL: 45.8%

Expected Goals

BUF: 2.93

TBL: 3.20

Total Goals

Median: 6.2

Over 5.5: 58%

Over 6.5: 40%

BUF

C. Anderson

TBL

B. Elliott

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
BUF	C. Anderson	36	35	1	97.2%	2.78	0	1.78
TBL	B. Elliott	25	20	5	80.0%	2.97	2	-2.03

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Model accuracy in this matchup: 56% • BUF at home vs TBL: 6-3

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-04-06	BUF 4 - 2 TBL	BUF	TBL
2026-03-08	BUF 8 - 7 TBL	BUF	TBL
2026-02-28	TBL 2 - 6 BUF	BUF	TBL
2026-02-03	TBL 4 - 3 BUF	TBL	TBL
2025-04-13	TBL 7 - 4 BUF	TBL	TBL

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	BUF	12	0	0.72
1	TBL	21	0	1.35
2	BUF	7	0	0.72
2	TBL	17	0	0.84
3	BUF	17	2	1.54
3	TBL	14	0	0.60

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

✅ Correct

Confidence: 54.2%

Total Goals

Actual: 6.0

Expected: 6.1

Score Breakdown

Buffalo Sabres 5 - 1 Tampa Bay Lightning

Expected: 2.9 - 3.2