Calgary Flames at New York Rangers NHL Predictions

2021-10-25 • Madison Square Garden

New York Rangers 1 - 5 Calgary Flames

🚨 Upset Loss (56% underdog)

Win Probability

NYR: 55.7%

CGY: 44.3%

Expected Goals

NYR: 3.00

CGY: 2.79

Total Goals

Median: 6.0

Over 5.5: 54%

Over 6.5: 40%

NYR

Igor Shesterkin - 16-12-4 | 0.910 SV% | 2.51 GAA

CGY

J. Markstrom

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
NYR	Igor Shesterkin	37	32	5	86.5%	2.66	1	-2.34
CGY	J. Markstrom	29	28	1	96.6%	2.73	0	1.73

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Model accuracy in this matchup: 70% • NYR at home vs CGY: 3-2

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-03-10	NYR 4 - 0 CGY	NYR	NYR
2025-10-26	CGY 5 - 1 NYR	CGY	CGY
2025-03-18	NYR 1 - 2 CGY	CGY	NYR
2024-11-21	CGY 3 - 2 NYR	CGY	CGY
2024-02-12	NYR 2 - 0 CGY	NYR	NYR

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	NYR	11	0	0.88
1	CGY	18	1	1.19
2	NYR	16	0	1.00
2	CGY	10	0	0.31
3	NYR	14	0	0.84
3	CGY	17	0	1.17

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 55.7%

Total Goals

Actual: 6.0

Expected: 5.8

Score Breakdown

New York Rangers 1 - 5 Calgary Flames

Expected: 3.0 - 2.8