Toronto Maple Leafs at Carolina Hurricanes NHL Predictions

2021-10-25 • PNC Arena

Carolina Hurricanes 4 - 1 Toronto Maple Leafs

Win Probability

CAR: 53.7%

TOR: 46.3%

Expected Goals

CAR: 2.85

TOR: 3.09

Total Goals

Median: 6.6

Over 5.5: 68%

Over 6.5: 50%

CAR

Frederik Andersen - 5-9-2 | 0.865 SV% | 3.38 GAA

TOR

J. Campbell

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
CAR	Frederik Andersen	25	24	1	96.0%	2.69	1	1.69
TOR	J. Campbell	36	32	4	88.9%	4.36	4	0.36

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Model accuracy in this matchup: 67% • CAR at home vs TOR: 4-3

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-03-20	TOR 3 - 4 CAR	CAR	CAR
2025-12-04	CAR 1 - 5 TOR	TOR	CAR
2025-11-09	TOR 4 - 5 CAR	CAR	CAR
2025-04-13	CAR 1 - 4 TOR	TOR	CAR
2025-02-22	TOR 6 - 3 CAR	TOR	TOR

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	CAR	21	1	1.30
1	TOR	10	0	0.56
2	CAR	10	1	1.16
2	TOR	14	0	1.09
3	CAR	17	2	1.90
3	TOR	15	1	1.04

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

✅ Correct

Confidence: 53.7%

Total Goals

Actual: 5.0

Expected: 5.9

Score Breakdown

Carolina Hurricanes 4 - 1 Toronto Maple Leafs

Expected: 2.9 - 3.1