Tampa Bay Lightning at Pittsburgh Penguins NHL Predictions

2021-10-26 • PPG Paints Arena

Pittsburgh Penguins 1 - 5 Tampa Bay Lightning

🚨 Upset Loss (69% underdog)

Win Probability

PIT: 69.4%

TBL: 30.6%

Expected Goals

PIT: 3.67

TBL: 3.23

Total Goals

Median: 6.6

Over 5.5: 66%

Over 6.5: 53%

PIT

Tristan Jarry - 16-12-6 | 0.892 SV% | 3.12 GAA

TBL

Andrei Vasilevskiy - 15-7-2 | 0.913 SV% | 2.33 GAA

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
PIT	Tristan Jarry	31	26	5	83.9%	4.16	3	-0.84
TBL	Andrei Vasilevskiy	29	28	1	96.6%	2.94	2	1.94

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Model accuracy in this matchup: 53% • PIT at home vs TBL: 3-4

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-04-02	TBL 6 - 3 PIT	TBL	TBL
2026-01-13	PIT 1 - 2 TBL	TBL	PIT
2025-12-04	TBL 3 - 4 PIT	PIT	TBL
2025-03-25	TBL 6 - 1 PIT	TBL	TBL
2025-01-12	PIT 2 - 5 TBL	TBL	TBL

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	PIT	15	0	0.74
1	TBL	15	0	0.97
2	PIT	16	1	1.53
2	TBL	11	0	0.97
3	PIT	11	1	0.68
3	TBL	12	3	2.22

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 69.4%

Total Goals

Actual: 6.0

Expected: 6.9

Score Breakdown

Pittsburgh Penguins 1 - 5 Tampa Bay Lightning

Expected: 3.7 - 3.2