Detroit Red Wings at Washington Capitals NHL Predictions

2021-10-27 • Capital One Arena

Washington Capitals 2 - 3 Detroit Red Wings (OT)

🚨 Upset Loss (53% underdog)

Win Probability

WSH: 53.0%

DET: 47.0%

Expected Goals

WSH: 3.35

DET: 3.17

Total Goals

Median: 6.3

Over 5.5: 66%

Over 6.5: 48%

WSH

V. Vanecek

DET

T. Greiss

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
WSH	V. Vanecek	25	22	3	88.0%	2.06	2	-0.94
DET	T. Greiss	28	26	2	92.9%	2.90	2	0.90

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Model accuracy in this matchup: 73% • WSH at home vs DET: 4-3

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-01-29	DET 3 - 4 WSH	WSH	WSH
2025-12-21	DET 3 - 2 WSH	DET	DET
2025-12-20	WSH 2 - 5 DET	DET	DET
2025-03-18	WSH 4 - 1 DET	WSH	WSH
2025-03-07	WSH 5 - 2 DET	WSH	WSH

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	WSH	20	1	1.07
1	DET	13	0	0.79
2	WSH	7	0	0.68
2	DET	9	1	0.40
3	WSH	12	1	1.04
3	DET	13	1	0.81
4	WSH	1	0	0.11
4	DET	1	0	0.05

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 53.0%

Total Goals

Actual: 5.0

Expected: 6.5

Score Breakdown

Washington Capitals 2 - 3 Detroit Red Wings

Expected: 3.3 - 3.2