Philadelphia Flyers at Edmonton Oilers NHL Predictions
2021-10-27 • Rogers Place
Edmonton Oilers 3 - 5 Philadelphia Flyers
📊 Pre-Game Predictions
Win Probability
EDM: 36.9%
PHI: 63.1%
Expected Goals
EDM: 2.71
PHI: 4.85
Total Goals
Median: 5.9
Over 5.5: 57%
Over 6.5: 45%
🥅 Goalie Matchup
EDM
M. Koskinen
PHI
C. Hart
| Stat | EDM | PHI |
|---|---|---|
| Season SV% | — | — |
| Last 5 SV% | — | — |
| SV% vs Opponent | — | — |
| GAA | — | — |
Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.
Goalie Game Metrics
| Team | Goalie | SA | Saves | GA | SV% | xGA | HD Faced | GSAx |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| EDM | M. Koskinen | 34 | 29 | 5 | 85.3% | 3.99 | 3 | -1.01 |
| PHI | C. Hart | 37 | 34 | 3 | 91.9% | 3.62 | 2 | 0.62 |
SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.
Head-to-Head History
Model accuracy in this matchup: 60% • EDM at home vs PHI: 3-2
| Date | Score | Winner | Model Pick |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-01-03 | EDM 2 - 5 PHI | PHI | EDM |
| 2025-11-12 | PHI 1 - 2 EDM | EDM | PHI |
| 2025-02-22 | PHI 6 - 3 EDM | PHI | PHI |
| 2024-10-15 | EDM 4 - 3 PHI | EDM | EDM |
| 2024-01-02 | EDM 5 - 2 PHI | EDM | EDM |
Shot Quality by Period
| Period | Team | Shots | High Danger | xG |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | EDM | 17 | 1 | 1.41 |
| 1 | PHI | 14 | 1 | 1.46 |
| 2 | EDM | 14 | 0 | 1.18 |
| 2 | PHI | 9 | 0 | 0.42 |
| 3 | EDM | 18 | 1 | 1.04 |
| 3 | PHI | 20 | 2 | 2.12 |
Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.
📈 Post-Game Analysis
Prediction Result
✅ Correct
Confidence: 63.1%
Total Goals
Actual: 8.0
Expected: 7.6
Score Breakdown
Edmonton Oilers 3 - 5 Philadelphia Flyers
Expected: 2.7 - 4.8
Get NHL forecasts in your inbox
Occasional emails with NHL forecasts, analysis, and model updates.