Arizona Coyotes at Tampa Bay Lightning NHL Predictions

2021-10-28 • Amalie Arena

Tampa Bay Lightning 5 - 1 Arizona Coyotes

Win Probability

TBL: 66.6%

ARI: 33.4%

Expected Goals

TBL: 3.61

ARI: 2.97

Total Goals

Median: 6.3

Over 5.5: 63%

Over 6.5: 48%

TBL

Andrei Vasilevskiy - 15-7-2 | 0.913 SV% | 2.33 GAA

ARI

I. Prosvetov

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
TBL	Andrei Vasilevskiy	25	24	1	96.0%	2.42	3	1.42
ARI	I. Prosvetov	28	23	5	82.1%	2.66	1	-2.34

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Model accuracy in this matchup: 83% • TBL at home vs ARI: 3-0

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2024-01-25	TBL 6 - 3 ARI	TBL	TBL
2023-11-28	ARI 3 - 1 TBL	ARI	ARI
2023-02-15	ARI 1 - 0 TBL	ARI	ARI
2022-12-31	TBL 5 - 3 ARI	TBL	TBL
2022-02-11	ARI 3 - 4 TBL	TBL	ARI

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	TBL	16	0	1.44
1	ARI	15	1	0.52
2	TBL	10	0	0.50
2	ARI	16	2	1.30
3	TBL	11	1	0.72
3	ARI	10	0	0.59

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

✅ Correct

Confidence: 66.6%

Total Goals

Actual: 6.0

Expected: 6.6

Score Breakdown

Tampa Bay Lightning 5 - 1 Arizona Coyotes

Expected: 3.6 - 3.0