Philadelphia Flyers at Vancouver Canucks NHL Predictions

2021-10-28 • Rogers Arena

Vancouver Canucks 1 - 2 Philadelphia Flyers

🚨 Upset Loss (60% underdog)

Win Probability

VAN: 60.1%

PHI: 39.9%

Expected Goals

VAN: 3.33

PHI: 3.21

Total Goals

Median: 6.2

Over 5.5: 63%

Over 6.5: 46%

VAN

J. Halak

PHI

M. Jones

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
VAN	J. Halak	28	26	2	92.9%	2.55	1	0.55
PHI	M. Jones	28	27	1	96.4%	3.79	4	2.79

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Model accuracy in this matchup: 70% • VAN at home vs PHI: 1-4

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2025-12-30	VAN 3 - 6 PHI	PHI	PHI
2025-12-22	PHI 5 - 2 VAN	PHI	PHI
2024-10-19	PHI 0 - 3 VAN	VAN	VAN
2024-10-11	VAN 2 - 3 PHI	PHI	PHI
2023-12-28	VAN 1 - 4 PHI	PHI	PHI

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	VAN	7	0	0.46
1	PHI	19	1	1.28
2	VAN	19	3	2.21
2	PHI	9	0	0.74
3	VAN	12	1	1.12
3	PHI	11	0	0.54

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 60.1%

Total Goals

Actual: 3.0

Expected: 6.5

Score Breakdown

Vancouver Canucks 1 - 2 Philadelphia Flyers

Expected: 3.3 - 3.2