Montreal Canadiens at San Jose Sharks NHL Predictions

2021-10-28 • SAP Center at San Jose

San Jose Sharks 0 - 4 Montreal Canadiens

🚨 Upset Loss (58% underdog)

Win Probability

SJS: 57.6%

MTL: 42.4%

Expected Goals

SJS: 2.92

MTL: 2.79

Total Goals

Median: 5.8

Over 5.5: 52%

Over 6.5: 38%

SJS

A. Hill

MTL

J. Allen

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
SJS	A. Hill	32	28	4	87.5%	3.50	4	-0.50
MTL	J. Allen	45	45	0	100.0%	4.33	2	4.33

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Model accuracy in this matchup: 40% • SJS at home vs MTL: 1-4

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-03-14	MTL 2 - 4 SJS	SJS	MTL
2026-03-03	SJS 7 - 5 MTL	SJS	MTL
2025-02-27	MTL 4 - 3 SJS	MTL	MTL
2025-02-04	SJS 3 - 4 MTL	MTL	MTL
2024-01-11	MTL 2 - 3 SJS	SJS	MTL

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	SJS	13	1	1.13
1	MTL	10	2	1.16
2	SJS	21	0	1.60
2	MTL	11	0	0.63
3	SJS	22	1	1.60
3	MTL	15	2	1.71

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 57.6%

Total Goals

Actual: 4.0

Expected: 5.7

Score Breakdown

San Jose Sharks 0 - 4 Montreal Canadiens

Expected: 2.9 - 2.8