Ottawa Senators at Dallas Stars NHL Predictions

2021-10-29 • American Airlines Center

Dallas Stars 1 - 4 Ottawa Senators

🚨 Upset Loss (59% underdog)

Win Probability

DAL: 58.8%

OTT: 41.2%

Expected Goals

DAL: 3.05

OTT: 2.79

Total Goals

Median: 6.3

Over 5.5: 66%

Over 6.5: 49%

DAL

B. Holtby

OTT

F. Gustavsson

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
DAL	B. Holtby	24	20	4	83.3%	1.97	0	-2.03
OTT	F. Gustavsson	39	38	1	97.4%	4.12	0	3.12

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Model accuracy in this matchup: 40% • DAL at home vs OTT: 4-1

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2025-11-30	DAL 6 - 1 OTT	DAL	OTT
2025-11-11	OTT 2 - 3 DAL	DAL	OTT
2025-01-12	OTT 3 - 2 DAL	OTT	OTT
2025-01-02	DAL 4 - 2 OTT	DAL	OTT
2024-02-22	OTT 4 - 1 DAL	OTT	DAL

Period	Team	Shots	xG
1	DAL	15	1.31
1	OTT	19	1.03
2	DAL	15	1.20
2	OTT	5	0.45
3	DAL	24	1.60
3	OTT	7	0.49

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 58.8%

Total Goals

Actual: 5.0

Expected: 5.8

Score Breakdown

Dallas Stars 1 - 4 Ottawa Senators

Expected: 3.0 - 2.8