Detroit Red Wings at Toronto Maple Leafs NHL Predictions

2021-10-30 • Scotiabank Arena

Toronto Maple Leafs 5 - 4 Detroit Red Wings

Win Probability

TOR: 68.3%

DET: 31.7%

Expected Goals

TOR: 3.89

DET: 2.91

Total Goals

Median: 6.8

Over 5.5: 66%

Over 6.5: 53%

TOR

P. Mrazek

DET

T. Greiss

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
TOR	P. Mrazek	31	27	4	87.1%	2.32	1	-1.68
DET	T. Greiss	38	33	5	86.8%	3.41	0	-1.59

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Model accuracy in this matchup: 79% • TOR at home vs DET: 5-5

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-01-21	TOR 1 - 2 DET	DET	DET
2025-12-28	DET 3 - 2 TOR	DET	DET
2025-10-13	TOR 2 - 3 DET	DET	DET
2025-10-11	DET 6 - 3 TOR	DET	DET
2025-04-17	TOR 4 - 3 DET	TOR	TOR

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	TOR	20	0	1.15
1	DET	13	0	0.72
2	TOR	20	0	1.59
2	DET	10	0	0.53
3	TOR	10	0	0.67
3	DET	17	1	1.07

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

✅ Correct

Confidence: 68.3%

Total Goals

Actual: 9.0

Expected: 6.8

Score Breakdown

Toronto Maple Leafs 5 - 4 Detroit Red Wings

Expected: 3.9 - 2.9