Philadelphia Flyers at Calgary Flames NHL Predictions

2021-10-30 • Scotiabank Saddledome

Calgary Flames 4 - 0 Philadelphia Flyers

🚨 Upset Win (61% underdog)

Win Probability

CGY: 39.0%

PHI: 61.0%

Expected Goals

CGY: 2.91

PHI: 3.72

Total Goals

Median: 6.5

Over 5.5: 63%

Over 6.5: 50%

CGY

J. Markstrom

PHI

C. Hart

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
CGY	J. Markstrom	20	20	0	100.0%	1.77	2	1.77
PHI	C. Hart	36	32	4	88.9%	5.13	4	1.13

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Model accuracy in this matchup: 50% • CGY at home vs PHI: 4-1

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2025-12-31	CGY 5 - 1 PHI	CGY	CGY
2025-11-02	PHI 1 - 2 CGY	CGY	PHI
2025-03-04	PHI 3 - 6 CGY	CGY	PHI
2024-10-12	CGY 6 - 3 PHI	CGY	CGY
2024-01-06	PHI 3 - 2 CGY	PHI	PHI

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	CGY	13	0	1.13
1	PHI	6	0	0.37
2	CGY	19	2	1.77
2	PHI	7	2	0.82
3	CGY	14	2	2.23
3	PHI	13	0	0.59

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 61.0%

Total Goals

Actual: 4.0

Expected: 6.6

Score Breakdown

Calgary Flames 4 - 0 Philadelphia Flyers

Expected: 2.9 - 3.7