Detroit Red Wings at Montreal Canadiens NHL Predictions

2021-11-02 • Centre Bell

Montreal Canadiens 3 - 0 Detroit Red Wings

🚨 Upset Win (50% underdog)

Win Probability

MTL: 49.8%

DET: 50.2%

Expected Goals

MTL: 3.15

DET: 3.37

Total Goals

Median: 6.4

Over 5.5: 64%

Over 6.5: 49%

MTL

J. Allen

DET

A. Nedeljkovic

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
MTL	J. Allen	22	22	0	100.0%	1.61	1	1.61
DET	A. Nedeljkovic	41	38	3	92.7%	3.02	1	0.02

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Model accuracy in this matchup: 44% • MTL at home vs DET: 4-5

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-03-19	DET 3 - 1 MTL	DET	MTL
2026-01-10	MTL 0 - 4 DET	DET	MTL
2025-10-09	DET 1 - 5 MTL	MTL	MTL
2025-04-08	MTL 4 - 1 DET	MTL	MTL
2025-01-23	DET 4 - 2 MTL	DET	MTL

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	MTL	20	0	1.32
1	DET	15	0	0.88
2	MTL	13	0	0.57
2	DET	10	1	0.61
3	MTL	16	1	1.12
3	DET	3	0	0.12

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 50.2%

Total Goals

Actual: 3.0

Expected: 6.5

Score Breakdown

Montreal Canadiens 3 - 0 Detroit Red Wings

Expected: 3.2 - 3.4