New York Islanders at Montreal Canadiens NHL Predictions

2021-11-04 • Centre Bell

Montreal Canadiens 2 - 6 New York Islanders

🚨 Upset Loss (53% underdog)

Win Probability

MTL: 52.7%

NYI: 47.3%

Expected Goals

MTL: 2.65

NYI: 3.61

Total Goals

Median: 6.1

Over 5.5: 60%

Over 6.5: 47%

MTL

J. Allen

NYI

Ilya Sorokin - 12-10-2 | 0.910 SV% | 2.55 GAA

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
MTL	J. Allen	36	30	6	83.3%	4.62	4	-1.38
NYI	Ilya Sorokin	38	36	2	94.7%	3.04	0	1.04

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Model accuracy in this matchup: 33% • MTL at home vs NYI: 5-3

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-04-12	NYI 1 - 4 MTL	MTL	NYI
2026-03-21	MTL 7 - 3 NYI	MTL	NYI
2026-02-26	MTL 3 - 4 NYI	NYI	MTL
2025-03-20	NYI 4 - 3 MTL	NYI	MTL
2024-12-03	MTL 2 - 1 NYI	MTL	NYI

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	MTL	15	0	0.60
1	NYI	15	0	0.60
2	MTL	16	0	0.94
2	NYI	16	2	2.19
3	MTL	16	0	1.50
3	NYI	12	2	1.83

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 52.7%

Total Goals

Actual: 8.0

Expected: 6.3

Score Breakdown

Montreal Canadiens 2 - 6 New York Islanders

Expected: 2.7 - 3.6