Boston Bruins at Toronto Maple Leafs NHL Predictions
2021-11-06 • Scotiabank Arena
Toronto Maple Leafs 5 - 2 Boston Bruins
📊 Pre-Game Predictions
Win Probability
TOR: 56.3%
BOS: 43.7%
Expected Goals
TOR: 3.03
BOS: 3.65
Total Goals
Median: 6.7
Over 5.5: 62%
Over 6.5: 51%
🥅 Goalie Matchup
TOR
J. Campbell
BOS
L. Ullmark
| Stat | TOR | BOS |
|---|---|---|
| Season SV% | — | — |
| Last 5 SV% | — | — |
| SV% vs Opponent | — | — |
| GAA | — | — |
Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.
Goalie Game Metrics
| Team | Goalie | SA | Saves | GA | SV% | xGA | HD Faced | GSAx |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOR | J. Campbell | 44 | 42 | 2 | 95.5% | 3.83 | 2 | 1.83 |
| BOS | L. Ullmark | 36 | 31 | 5 | 86.1% | 4.28 | 3 | -0.72 |
SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.
Head-to-Head History
Model accuracy in this matchup: 52% • TOR at home vs BOS: 6-6
| Date | Score | Winner | Model Pick |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-03-24 | BOS 2 - 4 TOR | TOR | BOS |
| 2025-11-11 | BOS 5 - 3 TOR | BOS | BOS |
| 2025-11-08 | TOR 3 - 5 BOS | BOS | TOR |
| 2025-02-25 | BOS 4 - 5 TOR | TOR | TOR |
| 2025-01-04 | TOR 6 - 4 BOS | TOR | TOR |
Shot Quality by Period
| Period | Team | Shots | High Danger | xG |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | TOR | 11 | 1 | 1.14 |
| 1 | BOS | 16 | 0 | 0.74 |
| 2 | TOR | 21 | 0 | 1.49 |
| 2 | BOS | 12 | 0 | 0.44 |
| 3 | TOR | 10 | 2 | 1.64 |
| 3 | BOS | 30 | 2 | 2.65 |
Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.
📈 Post-Game Analysis
Prediction Result
✅ Correct
Confidence: 56.3%
Total Goals
Actual: 7.0
Expected: 6.7
Score Breakdown
Toronto Maple Leafs 5 - 2 Boston Bruins
Expected: 3.0 - 3.7
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