Carolina Hurricanes at Tampa Bay Lightning NHL Predictions

2021-11-09 • Amalie Arena

Tampa Bay Lightning 1 - 2 Carolina Hurricanes (OT)

🚨 Upset Loss (54% underdog)

Win Probability

TBL: 54.4%

CAR: 45.6%

Expected Goals

TBL: 3.03

CAR: 3.54

Total Goals

Median: 6.0

Over 5.5: 59%

Over 6.5: 44%

TBL

Andrei Vasilevskiy - 15-7-2 | 0.913 SV% | 2.33 GAA

CAR

Frederik Andersen - 5-9-2 | 0.865 SV% | 3.38 GAA

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
TBL	Andrei Vasilevskiy	31	29	2	93.5%	2.97	1	0.97
CAR	Frederik Andersen	18	17	1	94.4%	2.34	1	1.34

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Model accuracy in this matchup: 53% • TBL at home vs CAR: 4-4

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-03-14	TBL 2 - 4 CAR	CAR	CAR
2026-02-26	CAR 5 - 4 TBL	CAR	CAR
2025-12-20	TBL 6 - 4 CAR	TBL	TBL
2025-03-11	CAR 4 - 1 TBL	CAR	CAR
2025-01-07	TBL 3 - 2 CAR	TBL	TBL

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	TBL	5	0	0.33
1	CAR	16	0	0.76
2	TBL	11	1	1.29
2	CAR	13	1	1.22
3	TBL	8	0	0.46
3	CAR	11	0	0.81
4	TBL	2	0	0.26
4	CAR	2	0	0.19

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 54.4%

Total Goals

Actual: 3.0

Expected: 6.6

Score Breakdown

Tampa Bay Lightning 1 - 2 Carolina Hurricanes

Expected: 3.0 - 3.5