Toronto Maple Leafs at Philadelphia Flyers NHL Predictions

2021-11-10 • Wells Fargo Center

Philadelphia Flyers 0 - 3 Toronto Maple Leafs

Win Probability

PHI: 35.7%

TOR: 64.3%

Expected Goals

PHI: 2.79

TOR: 3.30

Total Goals

Median: 6.5

Over 5.5: 70%

Over 6.5: 50%

PHI

C. Hart

TOR

J. Campbell

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
PHI	C. Hart	33	30	3	90.9%	3.57	3	0.57
TOR	J. Campbell	36	36	0	100.0%	1.87	1	1.87

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Model accuracy in this matchup: 67% • PHI at home vs TOR: 1-7

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-03-02	TOR 2 - 3 PHI	PHI	PHI
2026-01-08	PHI 1 - 2 TOR	TOR	PHI
2025-11-01	PHI 2 - 5 TOR	TOR	TOR
2025-03-25	TOR 7 - 2 PHI	TOR	TOR
2025-01-07	PHI 2 - 3 TOR	TOR	PHI

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	PHI	13	1	0.69
1	TOR	13	0	0.59
2	PHI	19	0	0.75
2	TOR	10	1	1.33
3	PHI	17	0	0.43
3	TOR	16	2	1.65

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

✅ Correct

Confidence: 64.3%

Total Goals

Actual: 3.0

Expected: 6.1

Score Breakdown

Philadelphia Flyers 0 - 3 Toronto Maple Leafs

Expected: 2.8 - 3.3