Los Angeles Kings at Ottawa Senators NHL Predictions

2021-11-11 • Canadian Tire Centre

Ottawa Senators 0 - 2 Los Angeles Kings

🚨 Upset Loss (53% underdog)

Win Probability

OTT: 52.9%

LAK: 47.1%

Expected Goals

OTT: 2.84

LAK: 3.09

Total Goals

Median: 6.7

Over 5.5: 72%

Over 6.5: 56%

OTT

F. Gustavsson

LAK

J. Quick

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
OTT	F. Gustavsson	36	34	2	94.4%	2.17	0	0.17
LAK	J. Quick	34	34	0	100.0%	4.13	2	4.13

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Model accuracy in this matchup: 50% • OTT at home vs LAK: 1-4

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2025-11-24	LAK 2 - 1 OTT	LAK	LAK
2025-11-15	OTT 0 - 1 LAK	LAK	OTT
2024-11-30	LAK 5 - 2 OTT	LAK	LAK
2024-10-14	OTT 8 - 7 LAK	OTT	OTT
2024-03-07	LAK 4 - 3 OTT	LAK	LAK

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	OTT	14	1	0.87
1	LAK	13	0	0.38
2	OTT	14	0	1.52
2	LAK	18	0	1.30
3	OTT	18	1	1.74
3	LAK	9	0	0.50

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 52.9%

Total Goals

Actual: 2.0

Expected: 5.9

Score Breakdown

Ottawa Senators 0 - 2 Los Angeles Kings

Expected: 2.8 - 3.1